The German government is extending the ban on public events at least until the New Year. French Prime Minister Jean Casteks says that “the epidemic will spread exponentially if we do not respond quickly.” Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz warns of a “difficult phase in autumn and winter” but believes in a “return to normalcy” in the summer of 2021 … Signs are mounting in recent days that politicians and other responsible leaders, at least in Europe, are looking for a serious and the long second wave of COVID-19.
The number of COVID-19 infections in Germany returned to the level of the lockdown times
The postponement of the traditional World Economic Forum in Davos to the next summer is quite symbolic. It was supposed to take place at the end of January, as usual, but the organizers have already decided that even in five months it will be too dangerous for the health of the world political and business elite to get together in a Swiss mountain resort. But these people can afford any new medicine. This means that the organizers of the WEF proceed from the assumption that no effective and safety-tested vaccine will appear by that time.
Andrey Gurkov
It is possible, of course, to argue about whether we are all facing the second wave of the pandemic or whether it is the same first wave that first covered the northern hemisphere at the beginning of the year, then rolled onto the southern hemisphere that was entering winter (just remember the long-term strict quarantine measures and curfew in Melbourne, Australia), and now just comes back to us.
Another thing is important: by the beginning of the calendar autumn, Germany, in terms of the number of new infections per day, returned to the level of the end of April. It was a period when the Federal Republic of Germany was just coming out of the lockdown and lifting some restrictions, but schools, department stores, restaurants and hairdressers were still closed. What numbers can we expect in this case in the middle of autumn or in winter? After all, low temperatures are very conducive to the spread of the virus, which became one of the reasons for outbreaks of COVID-19 in the chilled workshops of German meat processing plants at the height of summer.
German politicians are alarmed, Russian politicians are full of optimism
In Germany, more than 1,500 people are infected every day, in Russia, according to official figures, there are about 4,700. German politicians consider it necessary to tune the population to difficult times. “The situation is serious, still serious,” warns German Chancellor Angela Merkel. “The coronavirus has returned to Germany in full,” the Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder, who has become a kind of informal political leader in the fight against the pandemic in Germany in recent months, sounds the alarm.
Russian politicians assess the situation before the beginning of autumn differently. In an interview with the Russia 1 TV channel, Vladimir Putin says that the incidence is “already on the decline,” and does not demand from fellow citizens, but only asks them “, of course, to observe the restrictive measures that experts suggest we observe, if possible.” At the same time, the President of the Russian Federation reminds that “the virus has not gone anywhere.”
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin is simply full of optimism. He assures that “within, well, literally a few months, maybe six months, at the most, we will finally defeat the coronavirus.” Although a week ago, the Moscow mayor, who became the Russian informal political leader in the fight against the pandemic this spring, warned that the coronavirus in the capital was not retreating and that it was still far from mass vaccination.
Collective immunity: unrealizable hopes
German politicians, unlike Russian ones, do not count on vaccinations yet, although Germany through the EU has secured the supply of several drugs at once, which are being developed and tested by a number of European and American pharmaceutical companies. They do not rely on the FRG and on collective immunity, as the president of Russia does in the same interview: “It is already clear that in eight regions of the Russian Federation this population immunity has exceeded 25 percent.”
But in South Korea, which is quite successfully fighting the pandemic, in the summer they came to the conclusion that it is impossible to achieve herd immunity until an effective vaccine is obtained. In Sweden, relying on its rapid appearance has led to the fact that the number of deaths in the first half of the year was the highest in the last 150 years.
The World Health Organization has just clarified that trying to achieve population immunity naturally is dangerous, as it can lead to a large number of human victims. “There is not a single infectious disease that could be brought under control by relying on natural immunity,” said Sumia Swaminathan, WHO’s chief scientist in Geneva.
In short, in Germany politicians tend to be anxious, in Russia they prefer to instill hope in people. Personally, I prefer the first approach. In the current circumstances, it seems much more realistic, especially if we recall how radically miscalculated in the Russian Federation at the beginning of the year with the assessment of the virus: at first they calmed down for a long time, claiming that it was no more dangerous than a banal flu, and therefore suddenly incomparably stricter quarantine was introduced in Moscow for a long time. than in Germany.
Small and medium-sized businesses: many enterprises will not survive the winter
At the same time, fear is also not worth it. Usually the unknown is frightening, but now it is just clear that we will have a repetition of the past: get ready for the fact that the coming autumn and winter will be for the general population in many ways similar to last spring. After all, we have already learned how to coexist with the virus – to wear masks, keep a distance, work at a distance, stay at home with children for a long time. And the health care system has learned to fight the virus, it is now better equipped in both countries than six months ago, and therefore, I would like to believe there will be fewer deaths.
But business, especially small and medium-sized ones, will, alas, die more often. And not because of new quarantines and lockdowns – the restrictions will most likely be local, point-like (accordingly, there will be less government support in Germany). No, the key problem in the coming months will be low demand generated by the economic crisis – and precisely the second wave of coronavirus. As in the spring, customers will simply give up their usual services more often.
So many travel agencies, restaurants, clothing stores, cinemas, hotels, fitness clubs, beauty salons, concert agencies may not survive until next spring. Many employees in airlines, airports, entertainment, exhibition and trade fair business are at risk of losing their jobs. Therefore, society and business in Germany and Russia should tune in in advance that the first winter with coronavirus will be, if not in epidemiological, then certainly in socio-economic terms, very difficult and painful.
Posted by Andrey Gurkov, economic commentator for Deutsche Welle
The commentary expresses the personal opinion of the author. It may not coincide with the opinion of the Russian editorial staff and Deutsche Welle in general.
See also:
.