2023-12-10 17:08:38
By Marc Cherki
Published 27 minutes ago, Updated 27 minutes ago
The main commitments made since the start of COP28 cover less than a third of the efforts needed to contain warming below 1.5°C. GIUSEPPE CACACE / AFP
DECRYPTION – The International Energy Agency estimates that the two main announcements made since the start of the 28th climate conference will at best cover only 30% of the needs necessary to contain warming below 1.5°C.
(Special correspondent in Dubai)
No Sunday rest at COP28, the twenty-eighth conference of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is taking place this year in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has just announced that the two main international commitments made since the start of the COP, relating to methane emissions and the development of renewable energies, would only have one fairly limited scope to contain warming below 1.5°C by the end of the century.
The first project comes from around fifty large oil companies who want to reduce their methane leaks to zero by 2030. The 2nd agreement now brings together 130 countries and promises to triple the production of renewable energies in 2030 compared to their 2020 levels, while hoping to increase, or even double, their energy efficiency over the same period.
According to IEA experts, these two commitments would allow a reduction of 4 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2030, or around 10% of current annual emissions. This is both significant, but far from sufficient, since it only represents 30% of the needs necessary to contain warming below 1.5°C, adds the OECD agency responsible for ‘energy. Furthermore, these commitments are not binding unlike those made within the framework of the COPs.
«Majlis»
To contain warming and aim for carbon neutrality in 2050, greenhouse gas emissions in all countries would need to reach a peak in 2025 at the latest. emissions should decrease between 43% (according to the United Nations Environment Program for the period between 2022 and 2030, Editor’s note) and 48% (according to the IPCC, the intergovernmental group of experts on climate change which aims this decrease from 2019) by 2030 to contain warming to 1.5°C », Recalls Lisa Fischer, head of the fossil fuels program at the E3G think-tank.
The commitments studied by the IEA, despite the large number of countries and oil companies, only cover a small part of total emissions: around 40% for the countries and 35% of global gas and oil production for the 50 businesses. “ These commitments are limited in their overall scope, in particular because China and India are not involved in the methane agreement », Specifies Alden Meyer, expert from the E3 think-tank who has been following these summits for around thirty years. Additional actions are therefore required. His colleague Lisa Fischer adds that “ this assessment (from the IEA) is a clear signal that we need to worry about fossil fuels ».
This is the objective of Sultan al-Jaber, the president of COP28 who convened this Sunday afternoon a “ Majlis », a meeting where everyone sits in a circle, to restart negotiations that are slipping. The UAE president insisted that “ failure is not an option » and hoped that a consensus would be found on all fossil fuels, including coal. Behind the scenes of the COP, some are specifying that India does not want to hear about any limitation on coal. In addition, the representative of Saudi Arabia – who does not want to hear about fossil fuels in the final agreement – indicated that he wanted his “ concerns » be taken into account and demanded that “ certain energy sectors » are not covered.
For her part, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, the Minister of Energy Transition, indicated during this “ Majlis “, that ” in Europe, we will reduce our greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030. This indicates that we are leaving room for other countries (to continue emitting) ».
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