The collapse of the ruling coalition in Germany has Ukraine worrying about the future support of its main European ally, just as Kiev hopes that its continental partners will intervene given the uncertainty generated by the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States United. “It is important to take advantage of the months preceding Trump’s inauguration to coordinate with our European partners and plan together for the possibility that the situation does not change in our favor,” said Oleksiy Melnyk, international security expert at the Razumkov Center, a laboratory, he told EFE.
However, the political crisis in Berlin means just that Kiev’s two largest donors and partners – the United States and Germany – at the same time they experience greater political instability. According to the tracker of foreign aid received by Ukraine from the Institute for the World Economy in Kiel, Germany provided more than 15 billion euros, of which 10.6 billion was in weapons and equipment.
The German government said Friday that aid to Ukraine is “guaranteed” despite the crisis and the fact that a budget has not been voted on. “The help to Ukraine, the military support, the financial support, are guaranteed and we provide significant help both domestically and within the G7, which is also guaranteed,” said German deputy government spokeswoman Christiane Hoffmann.
The 50 billion euro credit line from the G7 and other allies protects Ukraine from recessions or political events in some countries, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz defended in Budapest on Friday.
However, the government crisis in Germany could leave Ukraine’s main ally unable to take swift and decisive action for months, even as the invaded country seeks to mobilize support from its European partners to ensure that the arrival of Donald Trump coming to power in the United States does not undermine its ability to defend itself.
More uncertainty after Trump’s election
“The Trump team, unlike the current US administration, will welcome and not block decisive steps by European countries in support of Ukraine,” said Aliona Getmanchuk, director of the New Europe Center, another Ukrainian think tank.
According to Getmanchuk, the more support Kiev can quickly receive from its European partners and the less involvement necessary from the United States, the more Trump may be willing to support Ukraine. However, if the crisis in Germany were to prolong, this goal could be more difficult to achieve. For now, Ukraine hopes that support for Ukraine will not become hostage to Germany’s internal political disagreements.
“We hope that relations between Kiev and Berlin will not suffer damage due to pre-election political speculation,” Yanchenko underlined. Hopes for a positive change The situation in Germany, however, also suggests some improvements in Kiev.
While the popularity of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – which oppose support for Ukraine – is alarming, Many hope that a new coalition that emerges after the likely elections will offer greater support to Ukraine.
“The good thing is that Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has a good chance of becoming chancellor,” Yanchenko underlined. Merz consistently criticized Olaf Scholz for his lack of leadership regarding the war in Ukraine. The leader of the German Christian Democrats is in favor of sending further weapons to help the invaded country, including – potentially – long-range Taurus missiles with which Kiev could also destroy Russian military targets on the other side of the border and thus reduce the pressure from Kiev. Russia.
Right now, Although Germany remains the second most aiding country to Ukraine in absolute terms, its contribution pales – when measured as a proportion of its GDP - compared to many other countries, as the country occupies only 15th place in the list updated by the Kiel institute.
If Germany supported Ukraine as much as the Baltic or Nordic countries in proportion to its size, the situation on the battlefield could improve dramatically, the head of the Ukrainian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, Oleksandr Merezhko, emphasized to EFE.
Interview between Time.news Editor and Oleksiy Melnyk, International Security Expert at the Razumkov Center
Time.news Editor: Good day, Oleksiy. Thank you for joining us today to discuss the current political landscape in Europe and its implications for Ukraine. The collapse of the ruling coalition in Germany has raised concerns about continued support for Ukraine. Can you elaborate on why this is significant for Ukraine at this particular moment?
Oleksiy Melnyk: Thank you for having me. The political situation in Germany is particularly worrisome for Ukraine because Germany is one of our largest donors and a crucial ally. With the uncertainty created by the ruling coalition’s collapse, there’s a risk that the swift and decisive aid we have come to rely on may be jeopardized. This is critical as we approach the transition period in the United States with Donald Trump’s incoming administration, which could further complicate our security situation.
Time.news Editor: You mentioned the upcoming transition in the U.S. Can you explain how the change in U.S. leadership might impact Ukraine’s defense and support strategies?
Oleksiy Melnyk: Absolutely. Historically, the Trump administration has shown a more favorable stance towards decisive support from European nations for Ukraine. If European partners can mobilize support without requiring extensive involvement from the U.S., Trump may be more inclined to back Ukraine as opposed to a more restrained U.S. approach. However, prolonged political instability in Germany could hinder our ability to secure that necessary European support quickly.
Time.news Editor: The German government has stated that “aid to Ukraine is guaranteed” despite the ongoing political crisis. How much trust can Ukraine place in these assurances?
Oleksiy Melnyk: While the assurance of support is reassuring, there is an inherent uncertainty fueled by the political crisis. Guarantees mean little if the government is unable to make swift, coordinated decisions to implement that aid. For example, without a budget, it may take longer for military and financial assistance to be mobilized. As time is of the essence in our situation, we hope that internal political disagreements will not delay or diminish the support we have relied upon.
Time.news Editor: Given this precarious situation, what strategies should Ukraine adopt to ensure it maintains robust support from its European partners, particularly in the context of the crisis in Berlin?
Oleksiy Melnyk: It’s crucial for Ukraine to actively engage with our European partners during this transitional phase. We need to leverage our relationships and encourage a united front among European allies. By demonstrating the urgency of our situation—both politically and militarily—we can push for coordinated efforts to ensure that support remains unwavering, even amid turmoil.
Time.news Editor: What about the public sentiment in Germany? Do you think the German populace will support continued aid to Ukraine despite the political upheaval?
Oleksiy Melnyk: Public sentiment in Germany generally favors supporting Ukraine, especially in the context of European security and solidarity. However, ongoing political strife can lead to voter fatigue and uncertainty about foreign policy priorities. It’s important for proponents of support in Germany to communicate clearly the consequences of undermining Ukraine’s defense capabilities, not just for Ukraine, but for the stability of Europe as a whole.
Time.news Editor: as someone deeply involved in international security discussions, what is your outlook for Ukraine’s ability to navigate this complex political landscape in the coming months?
Oleksiy Melnyk: The next few months will be challenging. However, if Ukraine effectively coordinates with its European partners and advocates for active solidarity, there is still potential for maintaining vital support. We must prepare for various scenarios and be adaptable. The stakes are incredibly high, and Ukraine’s resilience will be tested, but we’ve shown that we can withstand adversity before—our hope is that we can build on that strength to weather this storm as well.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, Oleksiy, for sharing your insights today. Your perspective is invaluable in understanding a rapidly changing situation. We’ll be following the developments closely.
Oleksiy Melnyk: Thank you for having me. It’s crucial that we keep the conversation going.