Confindustria: + 6.1% GDP 2021, stronger than expected
Confindustria: + 6.1% GDP in 2021, “stronger than expected”, explains Confindustria. “Two points more than the April estimates, followed by a further + 4.1% in 2022”. Investments? “Main engine of the Italian recovery: in 2022 they will rise to a much higher level than the pre-crisis (+ 17.7%)”, explains the forecast report of the Confindustria Studies Center. Meanwhile, Bonomi calls the government and asks for the “reform of the tax system, of the system of social safety nets, of active labor policies”.
Confindustria, GDP: + 6.1% in 2021. “At the beginning of 2022 the crisis is over”
“The rise in Italian GDP in 2021 is stronger than expected: with + 6.1% in 2012, 2 points more than the April estimates, followed by a further + 4.1% in 2022 “. This is what we read in the forecast report of the CONFINDUSTRIA Study Center “Which Italian economy in the end of the crisis?”, Illustrated by Alessandro Fontana, Director of the Confindustria Study Center.
“This is explained by the more limited impact of the Delta variant of Covid which, also thanks to the effectiveness and capillarity of vaccinations in Italy, has made it possible from May 2021 to ease the containment measures. economy above pre-crisis levels in advance, already in the first half of 2022 “, reads the forecast report. “From the fourth quarter of 2021, GDP will settle on a more moderate profile, because the thrust linked to the gap to be filled is running out. – Confindustria’s forecasts still illustrate – However, Italy would still grow in 2022 at a pace quarterly higher than in the past. The main reason for the higher growth expected are the beneficial effects of the NRP, which is worth 235 billion between 2021 and 2026, will finance reforms and fuel investments. For the first few years, the positive impact it is mainly attributable to the increase in spending and public investments. Over time, however, the implementation of the Plan will have positive effects on growth, increasing the potential “
CONFINDUSTRIA: EMPLOYMENT LEVEL RECOVERY IN 2022, BUT UNEMPLOYMENT 9.9%
“The number of people employed, after the minimum in the 1st quarter of 2021 (-811 thousand units since 4th 2019), has recovered almost half of the fall (+ 398 thousand units in July-August since the beginning of 2021, but still – 413 thousand from the end of 2019). With the removal, from July, of the suspension of dismissal procedures in the construction and industrial sectors, there has been no feared haemorrhage of workers. The number of employees, in fact, is expected to grow in 2021, of 461 thousand units since the beginning of the year. And then in 2022 the recovery of the employed to pre-pandemic levels is expected (further + 306 thousand) “. This is what we read in the forecast report of the CONFINDUSTRIA Study Center “Which Italian economy in the end of the crisis?”. The report predicts that “the unemployment rate will progressively increase, returning on average for the year close to its pre-crisis value (9.9%). In 2022, the expected rise in employment would tend to reduce the rate of However, the increase in the workforce will strengthen further (+ 1.3%, after + 1.0% in 2021) and this will keep the unemployment rate high, which is forecast at 9, 6% “.
CONFINDUSTRIA: BOOM IN INVESTMENTS, + 17.7% IN 2022
“Investments are the main engine of the Italian recovery: in 2022 they will rise to a much higher level than the pre-crisis (+ 17.7%)”. This is what we read in the forecast report of the CONFINDUSTRIA Study Center “Which Italian economy in the end of the crisis?”. “So far, the main contribution has come from investments in construction, residential and not driven by incentives on restructuring and public investments. – the Report continues – Investments in plants, machinery and means of transport, on the other hand, are still high compressed levels, but the recovery will continue thanks to the still high confidence of businesses and the driving force of new public investments. But they will be partly held back by the increase in the prices of raw materials and the difficulty in finding some materials “.
CONFINDUSTRIA: CONSUMPTION RESTART BUT STILL BELOW PRE-CRISIS LEVELS
“A recovery in household spending is expected in the second half of 2021 and 2022, especially in services”. This is what we read in the forecast report of the CONFINDUSTRIA Study Center “Which Italian economy in the end of the crisis?”. “However, it is conceivable that the propensity to save will remain higher than in the past, therefore, the scenario foresees private consumption still well below the pre-crisis levels also in 2022 (-3.7% compared to 2019)”, specify the forecasts of CONFINDUSTRIA. “Private consumption, partly blocked and diverted to durable goods during the lockdown, from May-June 2021 could also be divided into services such as restaurants, accommodation, entertainment, as well as non-durable goods. The partial recovery so far of tourist flows, of foreigners to Italy and also of Italians to abroad, provides growth margins to be exploited for services in the second half of 2021 and then in 2022 “, reads the Report again. “The greater propensity to save, largely ‘forced’ until the first quarter of 2021, due to anti-Covid restrictions, should continue to diminish in the coming quarters, freeing up resources for spending. On the other hand, it is conceivable that remains higher than in the past, beyond the forecast horizon. Furthermore, it is unlikely that all the extra savings of 2020 will return to consumption in 2021 and 2022 “.
CONFINDUSTRIA: PUBLIC DEBT DOWN, IMPROVES DEFICIT
With regard to public finance, it is estimated “a net debt of public administrations at 9.4% of GDP this year (from 9.6% in 2020) and 4.6% in 2022”. This is what is shown in the forecast report of the CONFINDUSTRIA Study Center “Which Italian economy to emerge from the crisis?”. “The large improvement in the public deficit in 2021 compared to the government’s programmatic estimate of last April (11.8%), is explained by the robust and higher-than-expected growth of nominal GDP and by a more favorable picture of revenues and PA expenses, in line with what was indicated by the Government in September 2021 in the Update to the Economic and Finance Document (NaDEF) “, reads the Report again. “In addition to the effects of the economic recovery, the provision of legislation in force on 2022 also discounts the gradual disappearance of the interventions adopted to deal with the Covid emergency. In the entire two-year forecast, the impact of the European resources of the NRP is taken into account. “, concludes the Report.
CONFINDUSTRIA: EXPORT RECOVERY, + 12.4% IN 2021 AND 7.7% IN 2022
“Italian exports will rise by 12.4% in 2021 and by a further 7.7% in 2022”. This is what we read in the forecast report of the CONFINDUSTRIA Study Center “Which Italian economy in the end of the crisis?”. “The export of goods is confirmed to return already in 2021 on the path of pre-crisis expansion, also thanks to world trade that will record good growth, despite the slowdown suffered in the middle of the year. – specifies the Forecast Report again. – Conversely, the export of services is no longer expected to restart this year, but only in 2022, remaining well below the pre-crisis levels: the persistent weakness of some types of travel, such as long-distance tourism and commuting for work. Furthermore, reflecting the high growth in investments, imports restart stronger than sales, so net exports do not make a significant contribution to the rise in GDP “
WORK: BONOMI “NEEDS SOCIAL SHOCK REFORM”
The budget law “in addition to accompanying the exit from the emergency phase” must provide for interventions so that “the so-called accompanying reforms to the NRP are implemented and adequately financed”. This was highlighted by the President of Confindustria, Carlo Bonomi, during the presentation of the forecast report of the Confindustria Study Center “Which Italian economy to emerge from the crisis?”. It is, Bonomi specified, “the reform of the tax system, the reform of the social safety nets system, active labor policies”.