It is assumed that a constitutional referendum will take place in Belarus by the end of February 2022, during which a redistribution of powers from the president to other branches of government will take place. At the opening of the session of the House of Representatives on October 4, 2021, its Speaker Vladimir Andreichenko appealed to the deputies with an appeal “to organize a public discussion of constitutional innovations and to hold a republican referendum so that it would result in a national consensus.”
Thus, an end to the situation with the 2020 presidential elections, when the Central Election Commission announced the victory of Alyaksandr Lukashenka, could allegedly be put to an end, but neither his main rival, presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, nor the West recognized it, and mass protests took place in Belarus for several months against the election results, suppressed through repression. Some observers believe that the transition of power and the transformation of the political system can begin with the renewal of the constitution in Belarus. DW asked independent experts to comment on this.
Lukashenka does not want to launch the transit of power
Arkady Moshes, director of the research program on the EU’s Eastern Neighborhood and Russia at the Finnish Institute of International Relations (FIIA), in an interview with DW suggested that “the Belarusian leadership does not want to actually launch the transit process.” “It wants to reformat the system in such a way that Alexander Lukashenko retains all power levers and political means that would allow him to feel calm in Belarus after the constitutional changes,” Moshes said.
Arkady Moshes, Director of the EU Eastern Neighborhood and Russia Research Program, Finnish Institute of International Relations (FIIA)
If this is the case, then the new Constitution of the Republic of Belarus is unlikely to be satisfactory for at least half of the population of the country that voted against Lukashenko in 2020 and went to protest rallies, the expert said. Moshes emphasizes: “The regime has shown that it is going to rule the divided country in an increasingly dividing way, which will provoke new conflicts.”
Director of the Minsk Institute “Political Sphere”, political scientist Andrei Kazakevich, in an interview with DW, agreed that, in theory, the renewal of the constitution could become a serious step in overcoming the political crisis and normalizing the situation in Belarus. But, according to the expert, this would be possible if both supporters and opponents of Lukashenka were included in the dialogue.
“The development of the new draft constitution took place under conditions of repression, with the unprecedented use of violence and the introduction of informal martial law. All this, of course, makes the atmosphere for the referendum even more complicated and contradictory from a political point of view,” Kazakevich stressed.
Political analyst Dmitry Bolkunets said in an interview with DW that the Belarusian authorities quite possibly see “an opportunity to resolve the political crisis by updating the constitution.” “But we need to see how this process will go, how much society will take it seriously and what the consequences may be,” the expert emphasized.
Will the referendum take place in 2022?
On September 28, at a meeting with members of the constitutional commission, Alexander Lukashenko said that “there is a version of the draft of the new Basic Law,” but immediately admitted that there is no fundamental solution to the issue of distribution of powers, which means that the essence of the draft is still missing.
Andrey Kazakevich, director of the Minsk Institute “Political Sphere” (photo from 2013)
According to Bolkunets, the Belarusian authorities are delaying the holding of the constitutional referendum, and it is possible that this event may be postponed again. At the same time, the political scientist is convinced that Alyaksandr Lukashenka will try to use the voting for the new constitution as an argument that his rule is legitimate: they say, no matter what they say, “they supported me in the presidential elections, and even more according to the constitution”.
In turn, Arkady Moshes does not exclude the option when it will be announced that “the majority of people will vote against these amendments to the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus, and thus the old constitution will remain. And it will be very difficult to find fault.” In this case, Lukashenka will remain with the old constitution and the old scope of powers.
The Finnish political scientist believes that at this stage it will be difficult for the Belarusian ruling regime to completely abandon the constitutional referendum. According to Moshes, its preparation can be delayed for quite a long time, until the regime considers that the referendum is a relatively safe event for it (in any case, voting will be a gathering point for opposition sentiments), “but everyone will completely refuse to hold it. – so difficult and because of the picture that was drawn in front of Moscow. “
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