corals cannot respond quickly enough to heat stress and adapt to the rising temperatures of ocean waters, and this is further complex by the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, BTA reports, referring to the publication “Science”.
The research, led by Dr Liam Lacks of Newcastle University, shows that adaptation to heat waves in corals through natural selection can be paralleled by rising ocean temperatures, but only if Paris Agreement commitments to limit global warming to two degrees are met in celsius.
“The reality is that marine heat waves are causing mass bleaching and coral die-off in shallow tropical reef ecosystems around the world, and the frequency and intensity of these events will increase under the influence of climate change,” says Dr Lax.
Still,”new experimental studies show opportunities for corals to adapt to heat stress,but a fundamental question remains: Can their adaptation through natural selection keep pace with global warming?” he asks. According to the researcher, with moderate to high levels of warming of the waters, this will not be possible.
The international team of scientists analyzed corals in Palau, in the western Pacific Ocean, developing an evolutionary simulation model of the corals, the publication in Science said. It includes data on the thermal and evolutionary biology of common but temperature-sensitive corals. The study simulated the consequences of choice future conditions of global advancement and fossil fuel use created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Prof. Peter Mumby from the University of Queensland and a co-author of the study notes that “our world is expected to warm by 3-5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century if we do not meet our commitments under the Paris Agreement.At these levels of temperature increase, the natural selection may be insufficient to ensure the survival of some of the moast sensitive but important coral species.” he says it is possible to maintain relatively healthy corals in the future, but this requires more aggressive reductions in global emissions and strategic approaches to reef care.
“The results of our models suggest that genetic adaptation can offset some of the projected loss of coral reefs and biodiversity in the 21st century, but only if rapid climate action is taken,” says Dr Liam Lacks.
Corals are extremely diverse and critically important marine ecosystems, the scientists note.