Dhe corona numbers are exploding, the intensive care units are full – and the majority of the people who end up there are unvaccinated. Politicians and doctors have therefore recently spoken of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated”. 2G rules were discussed or introduced in some countries. Only those who have been vaccinated or recovered should be allowed access to events or restaurants. But is it still reasonable to assume that excluding unvaccinated people from some areas is sufficient to catch the situation?
Many scientists, intensive care physicians and the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) agree on one thing: The corona vaccination effectively protects against severe disease or death. “Many serious illnesses and deaths could have been prevented if the target groups had been vaccinated earlier and more fully,” says Braunschweig epidemiologist Gérard Krause. Infectiologist Mathias Pletz from Jena University Hospital also emphasizes: “The main problem is still the seriously ill unvaccinated, because the bottleneck is the intensive care unit.”
However, many experts also make it clear: Those who are vaccinated can still contribute to the pandemic. “This autumn and winter it is deceptive to believe that a person who has been vaccinated cannot become infected and cannot pass the virus on to his grandmother, who may not have received a booster vaccination yet,” says the Bonn virologist Hendrik Streeck. Even if it might have looked like this at the beginning, the term “pandemic of the unvaccinated” was never correct. All people are part of this pandemic.
The virologist Christian Drosten also recently told “Die Zeit” that he thinks it is wrong if there is currently talk of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated”. “We have a pandemic to which everyone is contributing – including those who have been vaccinated, albeit a little less,” said the head of virology at the Berlin Charité. “Unfortunately, the delta variant has the property of spreading despite the vaccination.”
The Delta variant has thrown many assumptions about vaccination upside down. In the spring of 2021, it was seen that the vaccination provided protection from the severe course, explains Streeck. And also that there was protection against infection. Further data was only added later. “That is why there was no wrong communication, but the knowledge has simply changed over time.” Drosten also made it clear that the Delta variant could spread despite vaccination. In the case of the Delta variant, the protection against spread already declines two to three months after the vaccination.
At the same time, the proportion of completely vaccinated people in corona cases with symptoms has increased significantly in recent weeks, as the weekly report from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) shows on Thursday. For people aged 60 and over, i.e. the age group who were vaccinated relatively early, the proportion in the past few weeks (October 11th-November 7th) was even over 60 percent. The number can easily lead to misunderstandings, because there are only a few unvaccinated people in this age group. According to the RKI, only around 13 percent of people over 60 are not fully vaccinated.
The Secretary General of the German Society for Immunology, Carsten Watzl, also shows in a tweet in two graphics that vaccinated people can get sick, but still have a much lower risk: Unvaccinated people aged 60 and over have a three to four times higher risk Probability of Covid infection with symptoms like those who have been vaccinated at this age. The risk for unvaccinated people of this age to come to a clinic is seven times higher.
“There are no vaccination breakthroughs only where no one is vaccinated”,
The epidemiologist Berit Lange from the Braunschweig Helmholtz Center for Infection Research explains the current development very impressively. In the “Braunschweiger Zeitung” she resolved the supposed paradox of the increasing number of vaccination breakthroughs in view of the increasing vaccination rate: “There are no vaccination breakthroughs only where no one is vaccinated,” she says. “Conversely, if 100 percent of the people were vaccinated, then 100 percent of the corona cases in the intensive care units would have to be vaccination breakthroughs. The bottom line is: There would then be a lot fewer cases than there are now. “
In view of the overall increase in the number of infections, experts are calling for booster vaccinations and closing vaccination gaps, especially for older people, in order to break the fourth wave. But also fully vaccinated people have to be prepared for more rules again. The managing health minister Jens Spahn (CDU), for example, advocated using a 2G-Plus model for events, for example. So only to grant access to vaccinated and convalescent people if they have done a quick test beforehand.
In the opinion of some researchers, however, this is not enough. You need at least 2G with a mask, says infectiologist Pletz. “You really have to try to get that into your head: That 2G does not mean that you sit in large quantities indoors without a mask.”
The reintroduction of contact restrictions could also help break the wave from the point of view of several experts. “We will not be able to avoid the fact that in a certain way we will have contact restrictions again and that major events in this form may no longer be able to be held – or if so, only under strict conditions,” says Streeck, for example.
Drosten emphasized: “In the absence of alternatives, one will have to take contact-restricting measures again because of the unvaccinated.” He does not know whether this is legally tenable. What remains is a 2G model, i.e. a lockdown for unvaccinated people. “Whether that will lower the incidence in November – I have my doubts.”
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