2023-08-09 17:23:06
This Thursday, August 10, a new meeting of West African countries will take place to try to resolve the Nigerian crisis. The participants still do not rule out the use of force to restore constitutional order after the coup against the elected president Mohamed Bazoum. While solutions are being prepared, jihadist groups are operating in Niger. Beatriz de León Cobo is a specialist researcher on conflicts in the Sahel at the Center for International Security at the Francisco de Vitoria University in Spain.
RFI: There is concern about the opportunity that could be presented for jihadist groups in the region after the coup in Niger. Could they take advantage of, let’s say, the constitutional chaos to reinforce their territorial control?
Beatriz de Leon Cobo: It always happens every time there is a coup. After the 2012 coup in Mali, Al Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) practically managed to reinforce its territory in the north, when there was also the Tuareg revolution at the same time.
It is clear that those who benefit first are all the armed groups, because as the military junta organizes itself, appoints authorities and reinforces security at the sites, time goes by.
In the case of Niger, it is Al Qaeda, which is called JNIM there, and the Islamic State of the Greater Sahara (EIGS) that benefit the most from this and also from the departure of France. The French, for about 6 or 7 months, were very active in Niger and now they won’t be able to be.
Therefore, the jihadist groups in that area are going to take advantage to expand and consolidate territory, going down to other regions, even to the borders of the coastal states of southern West Africa.
RFI: Are those 1,000 American soldiers and 1,500 French soldiers in Niger planned to be expelled or withdrawn at this point?
Beatriz de Leon Cobo: In principle, the Nigerien military junta has already denounced the military agreements with France. France responded by saying that for them the only ones who have the authority to revoke military agreements is the legitimate president of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum.
So in principle it was a way of saying that they were going to stay for now. In Niger there are only essential personnel at the embassy level and all the French compatriots who wanted to leave the country have already been taken to France.
Clearly right now the French Armed Forces are not conducting counterterrorism operations with the Nigerien military because they are right now under junta control.
RFI: This military junta has justified the coup by invoking a certain lukewarmness in what has been the joint military strategy with France. How have those who support the coup, that is, the juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso, acted with these jihadist groups since they took control in those countries in 2020 and 2022 respectively?
Beatriz de Leon Cobo: I would like to specify one thing: the initial security situation in Niger has nothing to do with that of Mali and Burkina Faso. If we look at the numbers in the database on armed incidents, which is called Acled and that it is public, we see perfectly well that in Niger there are much fewer armed incidents than in Burkina Faso. In addition, in the first half of 2023 there were fewer incidents than in the last half of 2022. Although the security situation in Niger is extensive, there are armed groups not only in the area of the three borders, with Mali and Burkina Faso, but also also in the area of the Lake Chad Basin. In the case of Niger, with Bazoum’s strategy the country was not falling apart, as it has been the case in Burkina.
Of course, since France has left and, well, the Russian Wagner militia has arrived in Mali, the Malian security situation has worsened. Because? Because they are carrying out a very aggressive counterterrorism strategy, especially in the center of the country. The operations are leaving thousands of civilian victims and an attempt is being made to reinforce security with quite limited means. You cannot compare the resources that the French military operation Barkhane had or those of the UN mission, Minusma, which they have also just thrown out of Mali.
So of course the situation has gotten worse in Mali and in Burkina Faso. Right now there are more attacks and more violence, with more regions affected by terrorist violence.
RFI: Has Niger lost a regional shield position against jihadist groups?
Beatriz de Leon Cobo: Yes, it’s clear. In fact, it was the only country in the region that allowed the international community to be present and to be able to fight against jihadism from the Sahel. That is going to end and now the threat can be moved to the south.
In fact, since 2021 there have been more and more attacks in the north of Togo, in the north of Benin. It is clear that with these political fluctuations, with the coups d’état and the military juntas, there is a risk that this will continue to spread to more regions.
Niger is huge. For now, jihadism has been concentrated in the regions of the Lake Chad Basin and on the border between Burkina and Mali. The jihadist pockets may continue to spread, especially now that the armed forces are on to something else: they are protecting the presidential palace for a possible military force from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to restore Bazoum. They are not concentrating on counterterrorism operations in areas where the jihadists control.
RFI: This security issue involves another issue: international aid and poverty. What consequences would the fact of sanctioning Niger economically and cutting off aid to the country have in the land where these groups operate?
Beatriz de Leon Cobo: There is already 10% inflation after a week of coup. The entire Nigerien population is going to starve, firstly because it depends on international trade and almost all the borders for Niger are already closed: the ports of Togo, the ports of Benin, the ports of Nigeria.
In addition, the United States, France and the European Union have suspended all international aid programs for Niger.
The United States has not suspended humanitarian aid, but it has suspended development aid. The programs that all these countries of the international community had in Niger were essential for the economic and business fabric of the country. Also for jobs.
The sanctions are going to be horrible and even, for example, at the level of visas. This is going to suffocate the economy of Niger and of course, the population. The Nigerien population is one of the poorest in the world and in that region, but it is very resilient and very well organized, with a lot of very active civil society.
With the economic sanctions, it will not be possible to withdraw money from the bank. Some of them have already closed and there are problems with the supply of the CFA Franc.
Nigeria has cut off some power supply points to Niger. In the short term, there will be quite a lot of economic problems for the population in the society. In the medium and long term, it may be that other international partners help them, such as Russia or China.
RFI: Despite Niger’s resilience, can that poverty be a breeding ground for jihadist groups?
Beatriz de Leon Cobo: Of course, and not only for jihadist groups, but also for armed groups of all kinds. The Agadez area, for example, which is hard hit by migration trying to enter Algeria and Libya, there are criminal gangs that loot and kill.
It is not only about the threat of jihadist groups, but in general about all the armed violence that is going to take place because of poverty. They simply take advantage of that need to pay and recruit, because in the end it is a job to be a member of a jihadist group.
I am also very concerned about criminal activity in general, which is sure to increase.
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