What do we know today about variant B.1.617?
To date, there are no conclusive studies to indicate this the level of transmissibility and lethality, but we can assume that – like the English variant – it has a rather high diffusion capacity. The fact that it has been identified in India does not mean that it has taken over there. “The prevalence of B.1.617 in India is currently less than 10 percent and sporadic cases are seen in other areas of the world – he says. Carlo Federico Perno, director of the Microbiology Unit at the Bambino Gesù Children’s Hospital in Rome -. The situation in India is dramatic, but not because of the variant. The reason is that, when the infections temporarily subsided, the virus was left free to run, removing all restrictions. What is happening was therefore fully expected. I emphasize that we are talking about a variant and not a virus strain born as a result of vaccination to try to get around it (called vaccine-escape) “. In India the numbers are frightening: 17 million total infections and 192 thousand deaths. Every day there are more than 300 thousand cases and deaths well over 2 thousand. However, considering that India has 1 billion and 400 million inhabitants, the percentage of deaths is lower than what we have in Italy (with 2-300 deaths per day for 60 million inhabitants), despite having been vaccinated a small part of the Indian population (130 million doses administered, but only 13 million people also received the booster).
Did the “Indian” variant arrive in Italy?
Up to now it has been registered only one case, on 10 March in Florence. On April 24, a case of the Indian variant was reported in Switzerland: this is a person who was passing through an airport. Many countries are running for cover. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has decided – in agreement with his Indian counterpart – to cancel the official visit to India. In the United Kingdom, a hundred cases of importation have been traced and India has been included among the nations of the «red list»(Which includes about fifty countries) to which it is forbidden to travel and from which you can only return by undergoing, in addition to a series of tests, a mandatory 10-day hotel quarantine (at your own expense). Eight cases of the B.1.617 strain have been identified in Israel. Health Ministry Director General Hezi Levy said that, according to first impressions, Pfizer’s vaccine is at least partially effective against the variant. Its diffusion is however limited: there are a few hundred cases in Europe and a few thousand in the world of the Indian variant. Several countries – including Germany, Great Britain, Canada, as well as Italy – have implemented a squeeze on air links with India.
Could vaccines be less effective?
We do not know, but as mentioned we are not facing a stump vaccine-escape. Vaccines protect us from the vast majority of variants. Then there are studies in progress and still the insights do not give us absolute certainty – he said Minister Speranza -. Where there are elements of greater weakness in the ability to contrast variants, pharmaceutical companies and scientists are already working to find new vaccines. It is a challenge between the mutating virus and the scientific community, we will win it but we need graduality. The choice to tighten arrivals from India is due to an attitude of great caution and precaution ». The coordinator of the Scientific Technical Committee agrees, Franco Locatelli: «The situation is serious because the number of infections in India is extraordinarily high and there is a doubt that the Indian variant could have greater contagious power, as it was for the English one. Instead I would be cautious about the possibility that B.1.617 “holes” the vaccines, there is no evidence on this. We do not create alarmism ». What is happening in India, Locatelli concluded, demonstrates that “the pandemic must be tackled on a global level, with the economically more fortunate countries having to help those in difficulty, first of all for ethical reasons”.
Is a structured virus sequencing program active in Italy?
“Unfortunately no – says Carlo Federico Perno -: the announced consortium for sequencing has not yet started and today only a map of the existing one is being made, presented in the report of the Higher Institute of Health which lists and updates the variants present in Italy. Massive sequencing, on the other hand, would allow us to understand if new ones are emerging. Paradoxically, in India this activity has been greatly enhanced and coordinated by the Government, with a national program. In Italy at the moment we have nothing structured and financed in this sense ».
What could happen with the reopening of the business?
“The virus is still present and kills, we have 2-300 deaths a day – he underlines Pin -, but it is clear that our country is in severe economic suffering. I add that only 10-12 million Italians have been vaccinated with one or two doses. In this scenario, an intelligent political synthesis is needed that reconciles biological risk with that of social default. But it is a political decision (and therefore a responsibility), it is not up to us doctors. But let’s look at the data: in Great Britain and Israel, where 60% of the population has been vaccinated, infections, hospitalizations and deaths have plummeted. We are further back but within 3 months we should be able to vaccinate at least another 15 million people, reaching 50% of the population, if supplies are regular. Not only. The official figures say that in Italy there are 5 million healed (in most cases immune to reinfections), but given that in the first wave only the symptomatic were tested, we can imagine that the healed are much more, in the order of 8 -10 million. Finally, the heat: it is not an absolute element of reducing infections, but it helps to improve the situation together with the restrictions, curfew included. It is also very important to keep precautions indoors (masks, spacing, hand hygiene). By following these warnings, I believe that the conditions are in place to have a fairly quiet summer. If, on the other hand, the virus is left free to circulate, as happened in India, the situation gets out of hand, with the risk that further variants and maybe even strains can be created. vaccine-escape (but this is unlikely to happen before vaccinations) ‘.
Do we all have to keep wearing masks?
«Yes: I add that the Ffp2 offers more guarantees, but it is not easy to keep it for long, especially in the heat, with the consequent risk of taking it off or misusing it. Surgery is better worn correctly and for as long as necessary ».
April 25, 2021 (change April 25, 2021 | 20:37)
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