Covid started earlier than expected – Science – Kommersant

by time news

Researchers from the University of Kent (UK) concluded that the very first covid patient appeared in China several weeks earlier than previously thought.

According to official figures, the first case of the disease, then called COVID-19, was recorded on December 12, and on December 30, the Chinese medical authorities have already sent out to hospitals a description of the new infection and suggestions on how it can be treated. But this date – December 12 – did not explain in any way several strange facts, for example, the detection of the same SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater samples at the end of November 2019 (that is, before the first case in China, native to the virus) in Barcelona (Spain) which is what causes the covid. This and similar finds gave rise to many conspiracy theories, they were additionally supported by the inexplicable coronavirus statistics of China: in a country of one and a half billion people, there are fewer illnesses than in Montenegro, 600 thousand, and deaths – than in North Macedonia, 2 million.

But now, probably an explanation for the strange facts – but not the Chinese super-happy picture of the coronavirus – has been found. David Roberts, a biodiversity expert, concluded that the first case of covid was between early October and mid-November 2019 in China, with the most likely date of occurrence being November 17.

“We used the method by which we usually date the extinction of a living creature, the method, as it turned out, is excellent for determining the date of occurrence and distribution of covid,” explained Roberts. “Our method is the first time applied in epidemiology, we hope that it will allow us to track the emergence and spread of infections, especially because we need a small amount of data to operate. “

READ Also:  Travel startup raised $ 1 million amid pandemic

The method that Roberts talks about was developed by evolutionary biologists and allows you to determine the date of extinction of a species based on recorded observations of this species. Roberts took data on the first cases of covid in 203 countries for the calculation and calculated the most likely date for the very first case of the disease.

Another important finding by the Kent researchers is that the pandemic is spreading faster than commonly believed.

Based on materials from the article

Vitaly Logofet


You may also like

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.