The global eradication of Covid-19 is “probably doable”. The long-dreamed goal in a world grappling with the pandemic for over a year and a half now and with new waves of infections, would be achievable “more for this virus than for polio”, but “considerably less” than it is state for smallpox, a successful case since it was declared eradicated in 1980. According to a group of public health experts who applied a scoring system to the infectious diseases in question to measure how close the goal is. .
The results of the analysis are published online in the journal ‘BMJ Global Health’. The researchers, experts from the University of Otago Wellington in New Zealand, have also identified the main challenges for the ‘Covid free planet’ operation: first of all the ability to ensure a high diffusion of the vaccine and the response to emergence of variants of Sars-CoV-2 that would complicate the road to eradication. The system applied by the scholars is a comparative score that considers technical, socio-political and economic factors for all three infections.
Their conclusions are on the one hand encouraging, given that – beyond the smallpox already disappeared from the face of the earth – the comparison is with an infectious disease on which great results have already been obtained (two of the three poliovirus serotypes have been eradicated at global level). The experts used a three-point scoring system for each of the 17 variables considered, which included factors such as the availability of a safe and effective vaccine; permanent immunity; the impact of public health measures; effective government management of infection control messaging; political and public concern about the economic and social impacts of the infection; public acceptance of infection control measures. The total mean scores calculated by the authors of the analysis reached up to 2.7 (43/48) for smallpox, 1.6 (28/51) for Covid-19 and 1.5 (26/51) for polio. .
“Vaccination, public health measures and the global interest in achieving this goal due to the enormous financial and social chaos caused by the coronavirus pandemic, make eradication possible”, is the conclusion of the authors of the calculation, Nick Wilson. , Osman D. Mansoor, Matthew J. Boyd, Amanda Kvalsvig, Michael G. Baker.
But the main challenges lie in ensuring sufficiently high vaccination coverage and being able to respond quickly enough to variants that can evade immunity, the authors say. To estimate the feasibility of the eradication of Covid-19, defined as “the permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of infection caused by a specific agent as a result of deliberate efforts”, the authors compared it with two other ‘scourges. viral ‘for which vaccines have been and are available, smallpox and polio.
“Our analysis is a preliminary effort, with various subjective components, but it seems to put the eradication of Covid-19 in the realm of the possible, especially in terms of technical feasibility,” they write. But they warn: Compared to smallpox and polio, the technical challenges for Covid eradication also include poor vaccine acceptance, along with the emergence of more highly transmissible variants that may sooner or later present themselves in a version capable of evading the vaccine. immunity, potentially surpassing global vaccination programs. Although, the researchers add, there are “obviously limits to viral evolution, so we can expect the virus to reach its maximum form (fitness), and that new vaccines can be formulated.”
Other nodes “would be the high initial costs for vaccination and the improvement of health systems, the achievement of the necessary international cooperation in the face of ‘vaccine nationalism'”, the “unscientific aggression mediated” by some “governments”, they admit. Persistence of the virus in animal reservoirs may also hinder eradication efforts, but “this doesn’t appear to be a serious problem,” they suggest.
On the other side of the scale is the global will to fight the infection, “an unprecedented global interest in disease control and massive investment in pandemic vaccination,” they point out. And unlike smallpox and polio, Covid also benefits from “the additional impact of public health measures, such as border controls, social distancing, contact tracing and wearing masks, which can be very effective if well implemented “.
“Collectively, these factors could mean that an ‘expected value’ analysis could ultimately estimate that the benefits outweigh the costs, even if eradication takes many years and presents a significant risk of failure,” the experts conclude. The elimination of Covid has also been achieved and sustained for long periods in various areas of the world (Asia, Pacific region), and this can be read as “proof that global eradication is technically possible. “.