2023-07-07 10:49:00
In a scenario that combines high inflation, economic crisis and upcoming elections, the placement of loans among the private sector does not show signs of recovery. The only line that showed some dynamism in June was credit cards.
When analyzing the data published by the Central Bank (BCRA) on the stock of credits to the private sector, it can be seen that in the sixth month of the year the average nominal variation was 6.5%. Although the inflation figure for the same period is not yet known, estimates indicate that it would be higher than that number.
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Therefore, from the LCG consultancy they calculated that financing in pesos showed a real fall of 0.2% in the month and 13.2% compared to the performance of the same month last year. And they added that they do not expect a change in trend in the coming months, taking into account that they foresee a scenario of less economic activity.
In May, Economy Minister Sergio Massa announced the increase in credit card limits together with bankers from public and private entities with national capital. (Photo: Ministry of Economy).
“The stock of loans represents 53% compared to the level observed in May 2018, prior to the financial and exchange crisis, and it does not seem to recover significantly. The measures promoted by the Government such as extensions of financing margins, quota programs and some rate subsidies seem to have only a marginal impact,” the consultant’s analysts highlighted in a report.
Waiting for a solution for UVA loans, mortgage loans continue to drop
In particular, the report shows that the lines that suffered the most are those with real guarantees, which together fell 1.4% in the month and 27.2% in the last year.
The poor performance was mainly explained by mortgage loans, which are in clear decline after the failure of the UVA system, to which Congress is now trying to solve with a new regulation that obtained a medium sanction in Deputies. Housing financing recorded a real monthly drop of 3.5% and the year-on-year loss reached more than 41%.
One of the protests that the debtors of UVA credits carried out in front of the Central Bank. (Photo: Alfredo Luna/Télam).
In this regard, Guillermo Barbero, partner of First Capital Group, explained: “In a context where they are analyzing how to deal with the increases in loan installments granted in previous years and permanently discussing the adjustment methods to be used, it is very difficult for the private sector offers these lines of credit to an open market”.
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The performance of pledge-backed loans did not help to offset the fall in the stock of secured loans either, as they rose just 0.1% in real terms in the month and fell 13% in real terms year-on-year.
Commercial loans (advances and notes) also decreased when taking into account the effect of inflation. In this case, the monthly fall was 0.2% and the year-on-year fall was 6.4%.
Credit cards, the only ones that grew
The exception to the falls was, once again, credit card financing, which increased 2.4% monthly in real terms. There was seen, in part, the impact of sales for Father’s Day. However, the year-on-year comparison was negative by 11.6% after discounting the effect of inflation.
In the previous election, the Government will seek to give greater impetus to credit card purchases. For this reason, last week it announced the renewal until January 31 of the “Ahora 12” program that offers fixed installments and a subsidized rate of 72.75% annual nominal (more than 20 points below the performance of fixed terms).
The Government extended the Now 12 plan until January 31, 2024 (Photo: NA)
Although they are also linked to consumption, personal loans did not show a rebound in June, instead falling 4.2% in real terms in the month and 23% in the last year, according to LCG calculations.
“We must take into account that the month of June and the expectation of collection of the Christmas bonus make requests for new loans fall, but the retraction of the portfolio in recent months is also notable,” Barbero pointed out.
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