2023-12-22 18:25:12
Text: Editorial Cuba Noticias 360
Photo: Cuba Noticias 360
The latest report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that Cuba is the country with the largest fiscal deficit in the world without counting Ukraine. In fact, in the sessions of the National Assembly of People’s Power, a deficit of 18.5% of its GDP was estimated for 2024.
«Cuba’s deficit of 18.5% of GDP more than doubles Algeria’s international deficit, the second largest after Ukraine. No other deficit reported by the IMF exceeded 8% of GDP. Other countries in a conflict situation (Russia, Niger, Sudan, Yemen) did not exceed 6.2%,” specified Cuban economist Pedro Monreal.
This could worry creditors and investors, since, according to the Minister of Finance himself, this is the second highest percentage since the fall in 1993 as a result of the Special Period.
In this sense, Monreal raises the alarm about “if the risk of debt and investment increases or decreases in a country that, with double-digit inflation, adopts a fiscal policy with the second largest deficit and with the usual practice of covering it with Monetary liquidity”.
As the specialist indicates, this is the result of an out-of-control macroeconomic policy, and “could cause disturbances of very different types.”
With this deficit estimated at 18.5% of GDP, there will be no economic macrostabilization, Monreal declares. Despite this, the official media has omitted this “galactic deficit”; even with the consequences that this can bring.
Josué Portal, another expert on economic issues, is of the idea that the situation may not scare away investors, but it may make it possible for the government to resort to national resources to alleviate its debt.
The opinion of the deputies was that this figure translates into more inflation and an even greater deterioration in the population’s standard of living.
1/3 The budget proposal for 2024 potentially turns into a dead letter everything said so far about macroeconomic stabilization in Cuba. With a deficit estimated at 18.5% of GDP there would be no macro-stabilization pic.twitter.com/wnQZeuFjM0
— Pedro Monreal (@pmmonreal) December 21, 2023
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