In Sart’s opinion, this is a dangerous moment, besides, Israel has already announced that it will take retaliatory steps. At the same time, he did not deny that there are often differences between the responses expressed by the players involved in the Middle East and the actual actions. “They say that they will respond very strongly, but at the same time the response is to not escalate the situation. I think that this time it might not be the case and Israel will really do something that could seriously harm Iran’s interests,” Sarts emphasized.
At the same time, it should be understood that the USA, as a major supporter of Israel, does not want a further escalation of the situation at the moment, especially before the US presidential elections.
“The bottom line is how these issues will balance out, but I still have a feeling that there will be a retaliatory strike. It might not be as significant if there was more damage and casualties, because then there would be internal pressure within Israel itself. So there is a question of where they will try to hit, and then the question is whether Iran will have to go back into that spiral with strikes and responses,” Sarts said.
The head of the NATO center pointed out that until now the world has held back several times so that the sparks do not blow up the “Middle East barrel” to the end, but now is the moment when we are closest to this possible explosion.
Although the most predictable step would be airstrikes carried out by Israel, it is currently difficult to predict exactly what Israel’s actions will be, moreover, the events of the conflict so far have shown that Israel has other mechanisms at its disposal, said Sarts.
When asked if the Iranian attack could not be considered more than a performative one, considering that the casualties were very few compared to, for example, what would happen with the Russian missile strikes in Ukraine, Sarts replied that the full picture is not yet visible, however, one cannot deny the fact that the Israeli anti-aircraft defense is one of the best in the world and Israel has a relatively small area to defend. “There is no doubt that this strike was intended not only to show demonstratively, but also to cause serious harm,” emphasized Sarts.
When asked how Iran’s attack on Israel and subsequent events could affect the war in Ukraine, Sarts answered that these conflicts are quite closely related to each other, besides, Israel, like Ukraine, does not produce all the necessary weapons for itself and takes them from its allies, mainly from the United States. “The higher the temperature in the Middle East, the more hopeful the situation in Ukraine is for Russia, at least for now,” said Sarts.
Commenting on Danish Prime Minister Mette Fredriksen’s opinion that international military intervention in the Middle East could be a way to achieve a two-state solution and get out of the current deadlock, Sarts stated that he currently doubts international support for such a proposal. Rather, one could look at the international aspect in the event that some truce solutions are reached between the parties involved in the conflict.
It has already been reported that Iran fired 200 rockets at Israel in the evening of the previous day, the state television controlled by the theocratic regime announced on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Israel previously reported that Iran fired about 180 missiles, most of which were intercepted.
Israeli medics report that two people suffered minor shrapnel injuries in the shooting.
Iran claims it also fired hypersonic missiles at Israel for the first time yesterday. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said the missile strike targeted three military bases near Tel Aviv and other bases. The Revolutionary Guard also claimed that 90% of the missiles hit their targets.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran had made a big mistake by firing missiles at Israel.
After the US said it was discussing a joint response with Israel, Iran’s chief of staff warned that Tehran would attack Israeli infrastructure in the event of a retaliatory attack.
2024-10-03 16:24:45