For the first time Ukraine struck in Donbass from the Turkish unmanned aerial vehicle “Bayraktar”. The informational effect of it was already stronger than the operation itself. The Russian media spent hours of airtime on the discussion of a one-minute video distributed by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) on Wednesday, October 27, representatives of the Kremlin and the Russian Foreign Ministry condemned the actions of the Ukrainian army. The German authorities expressed concern about the outbreak of hostilities and “the use of drones by all sides.” The representative of the German Foreign Ministry indicated that only drones of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) can fly in the conflict zone. Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnyk, in a commentary to several media outlets, said that “Ukraine has a legal right to self-defense.”
What happened and how could it turn out?
Turkish drones with Ukrainian engines
According to Kiev, the first combat use of the drone occurred in the afternoon of October 26 in the area of the settlement Granitnoe south of Donetsk. Kiev reported that a battery of D-30 howitzers fired at Ukrainian positions from separatist territory, as a result of which one Ukrainian soldier was killed and one was wounded. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the drone, without crossing the contact line, destroyed one of the cannons, after which the shelling stopped. The video shows an explosion and people running from the weapon.
Ukrainian military in the east of the country, April 2021
Since 2018, Ukraine has been purchasing Bayraktar TB2 drones from the Turkish company Bayraktar Makina, which can perform both reconnaissance and combat functions. Kiev uses them for land and sea forces, it is planned to build a plant for their production and a service center. In turn, the Ukrainian state-owned company supplies engines for more powerful Turkish attack drones of the same company.
What did Ukraine violate by using a drone?
Was the use of the drone by Ukraine a violation of the Minsk agreements? Formally, no, said Gustav Gressel, an expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank in Brussels, in an interview with DW. “Minsk agreements (current Minsk-2 from February 2015. – Ed.) are violated by the Russian D-30 howitzers, which are there, but the drones are not, “the expert says. Minsk-2 provides for the withdrawal of heavy weapons with a caliber of more than 100 mm, and the D-30 caliber – 122 mm. Drones are not specifically mentioned in the Minsk agreements which, according to Gressel, enabled the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk to use them to drop mines and grenades, a use reported by the Ukrainian military on more than one occasion, while the OSCE reported interference with its drones designed to control the ceasefire.
An OSCE drone in eastern Ukraine, 2018
Nevertheless, a ban on the use of drones by the parties to the conflict in Donbass has existed since July 2020. Within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG), an agreement was reached then “to strengthen the ceasefire regime.” The first paragraph provides for “a ban on the use of any type of aircraft.” True, there is also a ban on any “use of fire, including sniper fire”, but the shootings continue. In the first half of this year alone, the Ukrainian side lost, according to official figures, 65 soldiers, mostly from sniper bullets.
Will the balance of power in Donbass change?
Against this background, Mathieu Bouleghe, a military expert at the British think tank Chatham House, believes that a possible violation by Ukraine of agreements “does not matter, since both sides do it.” Buleg believes that the use of a drone by Ukraine does not fundamentally change the balance of power, but only strengthens the Armed Forces of Ukraine in conducting “separate operations aimed at containing the enemy.” He notes that the forces and resources of the use of Ukrainian drones are very limited, but rather, it is about “rhetoric and victory in the propaganda war against Russia.”
Buleg is sure that Ukraine may try to follow the path of Azerbaijan during the recent war in Nagorno-Karabakh and use Turkish drones to go on the offensive in Donbass in the future. “It doesn’t work like that,” says the expert. In his opinion, Kiev has no desire to risk provoking a more powerful response from Russia and losing even more territories. Russian President Vladimir Putin has spoken about such a scenario more than once.
Russian troops in Crimea, April 2021
Similarly, Gustav Gressel argues. He believes that on the territory of the separatists in Donbass “there are enough electronic warfare and air defense systems that can withstand drones.” Gressel says that despite the Bayraktars, “Ukraine’s vulnerability in the event of a Russian counteroffensive remains very high.”
An Argument Against Arms Supply?
Wolfgang Richter, a retired Bundeswehr officer and expert at the Berlin Science and Politics Foundation (SWP), assesses the situation somewhat differently. Richter calls the use of a drone by Ukraine in Donbas “a violation of agreements.” In his opinion, this confirmed the fears of an escalation of the conflict on both sides. “You can be afraid that the other side will respond,” says Richter. The expert considers this an argument against the supply of weapons to the conflict zone, since this does not deter both sides, “but rather pushes them to use force.”
Mathieu Boulegue notes that Kiev’s approach to containment may be “unsuccessful, as it is not enough to contain the Kremlin.” Nevertheless, the British expert believes that this is about the kind of deterrence that Ukraine, with its limited financial and other resources, can afford. According to him, “it may sound crazy, but even using drones, Ukraine is trying to achieve peace.”
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