Portugal Braces for a Remarkably Wet December as Polar Jet Strengthens
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Portugal is facing the prospect of a relentlessly rainy December, with forecasts indicating near-daily precipitation, particularly across the North and Center of the country. While a severe cold snap is not anticipated, a strengthening polar jet stream is driving the unusually wet pattern, prompting authorities to issue warnings about rough seas and potential flooding.
Persistent Rainfall and a Shift in Weather Patterns
Opening a weather submission in portugal currently reveals a consistent forecast: rain. This is especially true for the North and Center of mainland Portugal, where precipitation appears in the forecasts almost every day, though occasional dry spells are possible. Contrary to earlier predictions, however, the region is not expected to experience exceptionally cold weather.
This shift in forecast is attributed to a strengthening of the polar jet stream, a phenomenon correctly predicted by Luso Meteo at the end of November. This strengthening has resulted in wetter conditions, although the South of the country, where rain is most needed, has seen comparatively little precipitation. In the North, over 100 liters per square meter (l/m) of rain has already accumulated in some areas over the past five to six days – representing 30 to 40% of the average monthly rainfall. If this pattern continues, December is poised to be exceptionally wet.
Complex Forecasts and Potential for Intense Precipitation
The situation in the Center and South is more complex. Intense rainfall will only materialize if the anticyclone allows weather fronts to move further south. Atmospheric patterns are currently contrasting, leading to high variability. “For now, the forecasts are complex, and the best thing is to keep track of how everything will evolve,” one analyst noted. Despite the uncertainty, continued precipitation is expected, with a likelihood of fronts eventually descending further south, possibly between December 9th and 10th.Intense rainfall could sweep across the entire country on Tuesday, December 9th.
Polar Vortex Disturbance and Jet Stream Reinforcement
The polar vortex is experiencing another important disturbance, a topic of considerable discussion within the scientific community. While a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event – a technical reversal of winds in the polar stratosphere – is possible,current indications suggest it woudl be temporary. Following any SSW, the polar jet stream is expected to re-strengthen.
Rough Seas Expected Throughout the Month
The Atlantic Ocean is highly active, with numerous cyclones developing and generally moving from southwest to Northeast. Some of these cyclones may directly impact the British Isles, while others could descend further south, affecting Portugal, Spain, and France. While Portugal is not currently forecast to experience intense winds, the same cannot be said for the waves. An ORANGE warning is in effect for waves exceeding 6-7 meters this weekend, and forecasts predict similar conditions will persist for the medium term (10+ days).
Although temporary lulls are possible, with waves generally remaining above 2-3 meters, yellow and orange warnings are likely to remain in effect for much of the month due to strengthening cyclonic energy in the Atlantic. “We don’t know if it will rain heavily, we also don’t know if there will be very strong winds in Portugal – but we know that the sea will continue to be rough,” according to a company release. Caution is advised, particularly along the West Coast, while conditions on the South Coast of the algarve are expected to be calmer. Low pressure in the Atlantic persists, contributing to the continued rough seas.
The reinforcement of the polar vortex is signaled by the propagation of “warmer” colors (yellow/orange) from the stratosphere to the troposphere.
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