A gap of 40 billion and a line of financing complementary to the Recovery Plan of about 30 billion to give an additional boost to the economy and be able to bring the deficit below 3% in 2025. These are some of the decisions taken by the Council of Ministers that has the Economy and Finance Document and the new request for extra debt to be sent to Parliament for authorization were launched in just 45 minutes. The Def estimates growth of 4.1%. In addition to the anticipations on the eve of the eve, also the deficit-GDP ratio, which rises to 11.8% (from 9.5% in 2020), given the slowdown in growth and above all due to the double budget variance.
GDP up 2.6% in 2023
Returning to the forecasts of the Def, GDP will grow by 2.6% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024. These are, according to sources from Palazzo Chigi, “rates of increase never experienced in the last decade”. Meanwhile, since the beginning of this year, a first tranche of non-trade deficit of 32 billion has already been authorized, which has been translated into the Sostegni decree, and now the government is preparing to ask for the authorization for another 40 billion and thus finance a new anti-crisis decree. Sources from Palazzo Chigi, relaunched by agencies, underline that the debt / GDP ratio is estimated at 159.8% in 2021, and then decreases to 156.3% in 2022, 155% in 2023 and 152.7% in 2024. For this year, growth will be 4.5%, starting from a GDP trend of + 4.1% again in 2021. These are prudential forecasts, said Minister Franco, given the never-before-experienced GDP growth rates.
Tax reform from the second half of 2021
In the draft of the Def just approved it also states that the tax reform, to be defined in the second half of 2021, will address the whole of the levy, starting with personal taxation; It will also be linked to European and global developments on issues such as environmental taxes and corporate taxation. Collection mechanisms will be reformed. Furthermore, the new provision will have the self-employed workers and businesses as its main target, and will concentrate resources on strengthening the companies most impacted by closures, the availability of credit and capitalization. Priority will be given to the speed of interventions, while safeguarding their fairness and effectiveness.
Monoclonal antibody therapies are on the way
Obviously, the overcoming of lockdowns and restrictions is fundamental for the country’s economic recovery and this can only be possible thanks to vaccines. The vaccination campaign, according to the draft, has been underway since the beginning of the year and the Government expects to be able to administer the vaccines to 80% of the population by the autumn. The document also says that monoclonal antibody therapies are on the way that will reduce the severity of the disease, if administered after the first symptoms or even as a preventive measure on unvaccinated subjects.
The government’s aupiscio: the latest intervention of this magnitude
Also in the draft we read the Government’s hope: that thanks to epidemic and economic trends that are increasingly positive in the coming months, this will be the last intervention of this magnitude. However, the commitment remains to support the economy for as long as necessary, if the conditions apply.