2024-08-28 21:41:28
According to IDEAM, the arrival of the phenomenon, which was initially planned for the month of July, has been delayed due to a slower than expected cooling of Pacific Ocean waters.
Isabel Hernández, director of the Huila Disaster Risk Management Office, explained the situation: “IDEAM has indicated that there is a 66% probability that La Niña will manifest during the months of September, October and November. During this period, our office will constantly monitor the conditions associated with this phenomenon, which could extend for four moving quarters, that is, until the end of 2024. In addition, it is likely that these conditions will persist at the beginning of 2025.”
The director also stressed that to officially declare the presence of the La Niña phenomenon, It is necessary that the conditions are maintained for at least five continuous moving quartersHowever, current climate models only predict that these conditions will persist for four quarters, leaving a margin of uncertainty about the evolution of the phenomenon.
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What are rolling quarters?
In the context of meteorological phenomena such as El Niño or La Niña, “moving quarters” refer to periods of three consecutive months in which the persistence of certain climatic conditions is observed and analysed. This term is used to measure the continuity and stability of these phenomena over time.
For example, if a phenomenon is mentioned as lasting for “four rolling quarters,” it means that the associated conditions have been observed and sustained for a total period of twelve months. This measurement is essential for meteorologists and climate experts to assess the impact and duration of phenomena such as La Niña, allowing them to better predict its effects and plan appropriate responses.
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