Democrat-controlled statehouses could bypass the Electoral College before the 2028 presidential election after sweeping midterm wins last week.
Voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona gave Democrats full control of both legislative chambers and the governor’s office, bringing the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact within reach of its required threshold.
The compact relies on an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, rendering the Electoral College moot once participating states command at least 270 electoral votes. Eighteen states and the District of Columbia have already passed legislation to join the compact, accounting for 222 electoral votes.
Axios; Democrats poised to break GOP's 16-year grip on statehouses Democrats are on track to take control of a majority of legislative chambers, ending 16 years of Republican dominance over America's statehouses. If current leads hold, 75% of Americans will live in a state with… pic.twitter.com/90Duv5KLaC
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The five newly flipped battleground states account for 61 electoral votes. If all five approve the compact in 2027, the total would reach 283 votes, surpassing the 270 needed to activate the system.
Path to activation in 2027
Advocates are preparing to introduce legislation early in the 2027 sessions. “I am confident we have multiple paths to secure the 48 electoral votes required to deliver what 63% of Americans want,” said Patrick Rosenstiel, a senior consultant for NPV, told Fox News Digital.
In Wisconsin, newly elected Democratic Gov. David Crowley expressed support for the shift. “We can do away with it,” Crowley said of the Electoral College, adding that he is interested in discussing the matter with the state Legislature.
Nevada Gov.-elect Aaron Ford also backed the concept, telling KOLO-TV in Reno that research into the history of the Electoral College convinced him of the need for replacement.
Shapiro: I think the national popular vote makes sense… I'll work with lawmakers to figure out what the right mechanism is for moving forward on that. But look, we're the ultimate swing state in Pennsylvania… I think Pennsylvania can still play a massive role even in a… pic.twitter.com/1ZW2TPpSYw
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“While the Governor-elect supports the national popular vote compact, his main focus is making life more affordable and putting money back into Nevadans’ pockets,” Tai Sims wrote in a statement for Ford.
Critics and Scholars Warn of Constitutional and State Influence Challenges
Critics argue that bypassing the Electoral College would strip smaller states of influence and invite immediate court challenges. “If we eliminate the Electoral College, big cities across the country will determine who our president is, and those of us in small states will have no input,” Robin Titus, a Northern Nevada Republican, told the Review-Journal.
Legal scholars suggest the compact faces significant obstacles under the U.S. Constitution. Derek Muller, a Notre Dame law professor, said that the Supreme Court could rule that states cannot join a compact altering a core constitutional duty without congressional approval, or that differing state voting rules create equal-protection violations under the 14th Amendment.
Under Article II of the Constitution, states hold the authority to appoint electors “in such Manner asemper the Legislature thereof may direct,” a clause proponents cite as the legal foundation for the compact.