The key date is July 21: if the gas does not flow again, a savings plan will be launched. Snam and Gse work across the board
The date in red now becomes a: on July 21. Because in less than ten days we will know if the total block in force since yesterday to gas flows from Nord Stream 1 to be ascribed only to maintenance reasons or if the signal that Moscow is shutting off the taps to prevent European countries from filling their warehouses necessary for the energy stability of the coming winter. The end of the works set for that day: the Siemens Energy turbine that left Canada a few days ago (after the approval of the United States under strong German pressure) and delivered to the Russian monopolist Gazprom must be replaced. Only then we will know if Vladimir Putin has decided to cancel the transits on the main infrastructure as a weapon of geopolitical pressure or if, on the other hand, the problems with spare parts were real, amplified by the sanctions.
The impact on Italy
The block for has a partial impact on Italy. Because the web of European pipelines built through junctions, secondary arteries and entry points on the network managed by Snam. So a clean cut on the Northern front has an indirect effect on flows to our country. Yesterday Eni, which has long-term supply contracts with Gazprom, communicated an initial alert indicating that from the entry point of Tarvisio, in Friuli, only 21 million cubic meters arrived compared to the 32 required. This is not a heavy reduction as domestic imports are mainly via the Ukrainian route. A marginal cut is defined by the Ministry for Ecological Transition which confirms the current pre-alert situation. The numbers tell us that the effort to fill the gas deposits is continuing in the right direction, but the credit to be given to the monstrous safety work being done by Snam’s CEO, Stefano Venier, was publicly thanked yesterday by Minister Roberto Cingolani. Eighty million cubic meters also yesterday, bought by Snam as an operator of last resort because there are no more buyers on the market capable of pumping gas at a price nine times higher than last year. There are public resources that we are drawing on. To survive the winter, the government gave resources up to 2 billion to Snam itself for this operation and another 4 billion to the GSE manager, directly controlled by the Treasury, to do the same. Six billion that affect public accounting. The result that we are at 64% full, by the end of October we must reach 90%. We are 3-4 points behind last year’s schedule, but in line with Germany and just below France. The summer comes to our rescue because the demand for gas for industry collapses in August.
The possible savings
clear that if from 21 July Nord Stream 1 continues to be unusable, rationing plans will be imposed that are already there because the volumes from the transit point of Passo Gries, in Piedmont (yesterday almost unchanged) would also be reduced, from where supplies from Norway and Holland come, which would inevitably be addressed to cover the demand of continental Europe. The alarm phase, not yet reality, would provide an incentive for some companies to reduce demand for a few days through an auction mechanism. They are the voluntary interruptibles: they would be paid to stop production. There are ongoing arguments about which sectors to stop first on the basis of the Ateco codes. Aurelio Regina, delegate for the energy of industrialists, argues that Confindustria has asked the Gas Safety Committee to urgently draw up a new emergency plan because the existing plan responds to the need to manage a gas detachment lasting a maximum of 15 days. . A possible shutdown of Russian gas in August would result in a shortage of 50 million cubic meters per day on a potential demand of 300. This is why it is worthwhile to record the analyzes of Enea on domestic consumption which account for about 30% of the demand. It would be possible to save almost 2.7 billion cubic meters with some behavioral measures such as lowering the thermostats by one degree, from the usual 20 to 19, and reducing the ignition by one hour a day.. We should think about it.
July 11, 2022 (change July 11, 2022 | 21:54)
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