2024-07-28 01:49:22
After the economy had a slight rebound in May, with the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) 0.7%, due to an increase in trade and a decrease unemploymenta slower cooling rate is expected in the second half of the year, according to financial specialists.
“We expect modest economic growth for the remainder of the year, averaging GDP just 1.9% in all of 2024 and we estimate a similar expansion in 2025, since the effect of fiscal consolidation will be offset by an improvement in exports,” he reviewed. Alejandro Saldanachief economist of the bank Bx+.
He noted that a moderation in spending is expected, especially if job creation shows a less force and inflation and interest rates remain relatively high.
Saldaña estimated that gross fixed investment may continue to slow down as the momentum of the flagship works of the outgoing government fades (Maya Train, Dos Bocas Refinery, AIFA).
He explained that there will be challenges going forward that will bring high financial costs and contribute to uncertainty, such as the elections in USA.
The economist stressed that exports are expected to continue to show less vigor, as the recent rebound in industrial activity in USA will be sustainable. “The North American industry is expected to improve by 2025.”
About, Ivan Arias, Director of Financial Analysis Citibanamex agreed that growth is estimated for the GDP This year of 1.9%.
“Activity in May was in line with our estimates, recording a recovery from the fall in April, but maintaining a slow growth trend”.
He added that considering the timely data, a monthly growth of 0.5% for him IGAE in June, “which would imply an increase of GDP 0.2% quarterly in the second quarter of 2024.”
“For the second half of the year, we expect economic growth to remain modest, as the expansion of the US economy loses traction, government spending contracts, labor market conditions gradually ease, real interest rates remain elevated, and high levels of political uncertainty delay investment decisions.”
He insisted on a GDP growth of 1.9% per year in 2024, “from the 3.2% expansion in 2023.”
Victor Ceja, chief economist of Valmex, He indicated that going forward, in the second half of this year, less dynamism could be observed in economic activity due to the dissipation of spending for electoral purposes, the completion of infrastructure works of the current Government and the impact of restrictive monetary policy.
“In 2025, Fiscal consolidation will anticipate a further slowdown,” he concluded.
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2024-07-28 01:49:22