And yet it moves ! While the twelfth day of mobilization against the pension reform was held on Thursday, April 13, and the Constitutional Council was to decide on the text on Friday, the tricolor economy showed astonishing resistance. “French growth there, it is solid”hammered again the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, on Europe 1, Tuesday, April 11. “We ended 2022 better, and started 2023 better than we could have feared”summarizes Denis Ferrand, director general of the Rexecode institute, close to employers.
The sword of Damocles of a recession, a dreaded time, and which is likely to strike in particular Germany, moves away. On Tuesday, the Banque de France revised its growth forecast for the first quarter slightly upwards (GDP should ultimately grow by 0.2%), while the IMF expects growth of 0.7% this year. At Bercy, the objective of 1% for 2023 could be kept in the stability program which must be sent within a few days to the European Commission.
And if hundreds of thousands of French people have taken to the streets to express their dissatisfaction in recent weeks, strikes and blockades have not unduly disrupted business operations. Neither gasoline shortages nor transport strikes succeeded in “bring France to a standstill”the watchword of the unions a month ago.
“There is a dissociation between the political and social climate, and economic life”confirms Alexandre Montay, the general delegate of the Movement of medium-sized companies (METI), who underlines “turnover and investment dynamics” of the majority of its members: “The order books are good, companies continue to plan. »
Despite strong disparities depending on the sector and concerns about rising production costs, particularly energy costs, two-thirds of managers of mid-cap companies say they are rather optimistic for the coming months, compared to only half at the end of December 2022, according to the quarterly METI barometer. “The French post-Covid restart – recovery plan, PGE [prêts garantis par l’Etat]… –, combined with the competitiveness measures implemented by the government in recent years, explains the good performance of investment and employment”estimated M. Montay.
“The fall in unemployment, it no longer interests many people”
This is the great paradox of this beginning of Emmanuel Macron’s second five-year term: after the catastrophic sequence of retirements, political action seems to have stopped, ministers are chomping at the bit, the images of strikes and clashes with the police go around the world, and the good resistance of the economy does not break the sound barrier. Even if it is not yet full employment, unemployment is close to 7%, hiring intentions remain at a high level. The same good surprise on the side of public finances, where tax revenues – boosted in part, it is true, by inflation – exceeded the expectations of the executive by 7 billion euros, allowing a greater reduction than expected. of the deficit at the end of 2022, to 4.7% of GDP.
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