Diabetes cases will skyrocket from 529 million to 1.3 billion in 2050

2023-06-23 00:30:07

Without effective strategies, more than 500 million people are living with diabetes worldwide, affecting men, women and children of all ages in all countries, and that number is projected to more than double to the age of 1.3 billion people in the next 30 years, with an increase in all countries, as published in «The Lancet».

At the supra-region level, the highest rate is 9.3% in North Africa and the Middle East, and that figure is projected to rise to 16.8% by 2050. The rate in Latin America and the Caribbean increase to 11.3%.

Diabetes was especially evident in people aged 65 and over in all countries, recording a prevalence rate of more than 20% for that demographic worldwide. The highest rate was 24.4% for people aged 75 to 79. Looking at the data by supra-region, North Africa and the Middle East had the highest rate, at 39.4% in this age group, while Central Europe, Eastern Europe and Central Asia had the lowest rate, at 19. .8%

Almost all global cases (96%) are of type 2 diabetes; the 16 risk factors studied were associated with type 2 diabetes. High body mass index (BMI) was the main risk for diabetes -responsible for 52.2% of disability and mortality from type 2 diabetes-, followed by dietary risks, environmental/occupational risks, tobacco use, low physical activity and alcohol consumption.

“The rapid rate of growth of diabetes is not only alarming, but also a challenge for all healthcare systems in the world, especially considering that the disease also increases the risk of ischemic heart disease and stroke,” says Liane Ong, lead author and principal investigator of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) from Washington University School of Medicine.

Although the general public may believe that type 2 diabetes is simply associated with obesity, lack of exercise, and poor diet, the prevention and control of diabetes is quite complex due to a number of factors. That includes someone’s genetics, as well as logistical, social, and financial barriers within a country’s structural system, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

“Some people are quick to focus on one or a few risk factors, but that approach doesn’t take into account the conditions people are born into and live in, which create disparities around the world,” says Lauryn Stafford, second author and Graduate fellow at IHME. “These inequalities ultimately impact people’s access to screening and treatment and the availability of health services. This is precisely why we need a more complete picture of how diabetes has been affecting populations at a granular level.”

Using the study Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021the researchers examined the prevalence, morbidity, and mortality of diabetes in 204 countries and territories by age and sex between 1990 and 2021, and predicted the prevalence of diabetes through 2050. They also provided estimates for type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes. and quantified the proportion of type 2 diabetes burden attributable to 16 risk factors.