2023-04-24 21:54:17
Kiev is said to be determined to liberate all regions currently held by Russian units, or at least not to leave it unturned. It was said several times at the possible time that the Ukrainian army was still waiting for deliveries of heavy weapons in particular from abroad or for the training of their soldiers on Western equipment. The weather and the condition of the ground for the use of heavy battle tanks were also repeatedly mentioned as factors.
Two days ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi reported that new military units would be set up. “We are also actively preparing new brigades and units that will prove themselves on the front lines,” he said on Friday. “All of us in Ukraine must understand that the main task of the state is to liberate our territories, to bring back our land and our people from Russian captivity.”
Noticeable troop movements
In addition, the US magazine “Newsweek” recently reported, again citing Russian media reports, that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is only a “matter of time” and will begin shortly, and gave possible details on this. Ukrainian troops would not attack in the south at first, but from the north-east in the direction of the city of Luhansk.
On Monday, the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported conspicuous troop movements. Ukrainian units are located on the left bank of the Dnipro River in the Cherson region, which was until recently controlled by Russian troops. In addition, there are said to be solid Ukrainian supply lines already in place. The Russian associations had or still have time to strengthen their positions.
Phillips P. O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the Scottish University of St. Andrews, expressed doubts via Twitter that a Ukrainian offensive would start anytime soon. The Ukrainian army has no reason to throw itself into such an attack as long as the Russian army is willing to “waste” its forces on attacks on Bakhmut, for example. “All of this gives Ukraine time to prepare better and build up reserves.”
Possible route towards Crimea
The ISW, which continuously publishes assessments of the current situation, referred in the report to information from Russia and the evaluation of geodata – including some uncertainties.
The extent and aim of the obvious counterattacks are unclear. Russia denied possible Ukrainian territorial gains. If the region were conquered from the Cherson region, the path would be clear for the Ukrainian army to the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia.
Kremlin line apparently met with opposition
On Sunday, “Newsweek” reported, citing the US institute based in Washington, that Russian President Vladimir Putin was under increasing pressure to reconsider his strategy in Ukraine. Instead of launching costly attacks with no noticeable territorial gains, the Russian army should go on the defensive, hold positions, and gather forces for the anticipated major Ukrainian offensive.
However, these suggestions by the military would apparently not be heard in the Kremlin. “The continued insistence on Russian offensives in eastern Ukraine suggests that the group seeking to freeze the war along the current front has not fully convinced Putin of their views,” the analysis said.
Wagner boss Prigozhin thinks aloud
The ISW experts suspect that this is one of the reasons why the Defense Ministry in Moscow has repeatedly come to terms with the head of the Russian private army, Wagner, in order to use him to get to Putin. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is considered a close confidant of the Kremlin boss – and a man of frank words.
In mid-April, Prigozhin caused a stir with a text, especially in Ukraine, in which he reasoned about a possible end to the war. “Today it is necessary for the state power and for society to put some fat point behind the military special operation,” the head of the notorious mercenary group was quoted as saying. More than a year later, Russia’s pro-Kremlin circles still generally refer to the war as just a “military special operation.”
Goals “in a way” achieved
“The ideal variant would be to announce the end of the military special operation and to declare that Russia has achieved all its planned goals – and in a sense we have achieved them,” Prigozhin wrote. “For Russia there is always a risk that the situation on the front line may deteriorate after the start of the (Ukrainian) counter-offensive.”
According to the head of the Wagner group, the only option at the moment is to “get stuck” in the occupied territories. However, this would mean a retreat from the Kremlin’s actual war aims. Among other things, these provide for the complete conquest of the four Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Cherson, which Russia annexed last year.
Unclear hints
In the end, however, it was not clear from the text what Prigozhin really wants. He spoke out against any kind of negotiations that would provide for the return of the Russian-occupied territories to Ukraine. Instead, the fighting would have to go on. Prigozhin also threatened the Ukrainian army: “See you in Bakhmut.” His mercenaries are primarily involved in the fighting for the city.
Later, Prigozhin had his press service comment on the first media reports that addressed his alleged demand for an end to the war. The main message of his article was that there must be an “honest fight”, he clarified – whatever that means. In any case, Prigozhin’s statements were interpreted as doubts about the success of the current strategy.
Ukraine has upgraded enormously
According to the annual report on global arms spending by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), published on Monday, Ukraine increased its military spending to $44 billion last year – not counting international aid. That was an increase of 640 percent over the previous year.
In the international ranking, the country jumped from 36th to 11th place. With the war in Ukraine (and the conflict over Taiwan), arms spending worldwide rose to an all-time high of around two trillion euros.
Kiev is now demanding a tenfold increase in Western military aid. “We are grateful to our allies for their military assistance. But that’s not enough,” wrote Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Melnyk, longtime ambassador to Germany, on Twitter over the weekend. So far, all of Ukraine’s allies have provided around 50 billion euros. But it takes tenfold.
Lavrov defends before UN war
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the West of hegemonic plans on Monday and defended the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The “Ukraine question” could not be viewed in isolation from the geopolitical development, in which NATO had threatened Russia’s security in the region for years, Lavrov said at the UN Security Council in New York. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, on the other hand, denounced Russia’s “devastation” of Ukraine.
“It’s about how international relations will be shaped in the future: by building a solid consensus based on a balance of interests, or by aggressively and erratically pushing Washington’s supremacy,” Lavrov said at the United Nations Security Council session.
#Disagreements #Moscow #evidence #Ukrainian #offensive