DECRYPTION – Emmanuel Macron “requested appropriate protective measures” from the French government, which assures Wednesday “to follow very carefully the evolution of the situation in China”, faced with an explosion of Covid cases.
China’s zero covid release continues. Latest episode, the lifting, from January 8, of mandatory quarantines on arrival on Chinese soil: only a negative test of less than 48 hours will now be required. At the same time, the Health Commission mentioned a gradual restoration of the authorization of travel abroad, even if no timetable has yet been advanced. As a result, the number of searches for destinations outside mainland China has increased 10 times compared to last year, according to the booking site Trip.com. Tongcheng, a Chinese travel app, experienced an 850% jump in searches on its platform.
In response, Italy has become the first European country to announce the imposition of tests on travelers coming from China – where the epidemic is blazing and where more than a million people could lose their lives, a “essential measure […] in order to protect the Italian population», his Minister of Health justified himself on Wednesday, December 28. This Wednesday, the United States also announced the obligation of a Covid test for travelers from China, from January 5. Japan, for its part, announced on Tuesday that a test would be imposed on visitors from China. Preceded by India this Saturday which has made PCR tests compulsory for travelers from Asian countries, including China.
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On the Chinese social network Weibo, the French Embassy in Beijing for its part indicated that France “[accueillait] with open arms» ses «chinese friends“. Should France follow its Italian neighbor and impose restrictions on travelers from China?
A strong epidemic wave
In China, the situation seems out of control. Images of crowded hospitals are flourishing on social media, prompting Chinese President Xi Jinping to “Building a strong bulwark against the epidemic”. Similarly, the testimonies of overwhelmed crematoriums, especially in Beijing, are numerous.
However, “the situations of China and Europe have nothing to do», reassures Bruno Lina, virologist at the Lyon civil hospices and member of the committee for monitoring and anticipating health risks (Covars). The Chinese population has had very little contact with Covid-19 during these almost three years of zero Covid and vaccination rates are low. “They have an immunity deficiency that we don’t have at all in Europe [et en France]», confirms Bruno Lina.
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It is difficult to say with certainty which sub-variant of Omicron is circulating in China – a country which has also ceased to publish its figures and which communicates very little -, but it could be BF.7, which has already arrived in Europe and in France, but largely in the minority. This one could be more contagious than the current Omicron sub-variant that is the majority in France, BQ.1.1. “For me, there is no reason to impose anything at the borders, since it is the same subvariants in China as in Europe», wants to believe Bruno Lina.
Yet testing travelers from China could “allow to slow down“The arrival of positive people on French soil says Philippe Amouyel, epidemiologist and professor of public health at the Lille University Hospital, who recognizes that this would not make it possible to stop possible new variants. “It should still be done, because there are many things that we do not control with what is happening in China», he believes.
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A collective measure?
For him, the effectiveness of such a measure lies in its extension to all the countries of the Schengen area. A common position that Rome therefore did not expect. “This would require systematic sequencing in these different countries», supports Philippe Amouyel. “The interest would remain zero because there is always the possibility of going through another non-Schengen country before arriving in France.», nuance, however, on the Bruno Lina side.
Similarly, the appearance of a new sub-variant does not necessarily mean that it will prevail. “Covid-19 mutates all the time. It is by seeing the spread of these variants that we can tell if it is worrying or if it is just one of them.», believes Philippe Amouyel. Clearly, new variants appear very regularly, but they are not necessarily more contagious or more dangerous than the previous variants.
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However, it is possible to establishan estimation of the virulence of a variant by sequencing», even if it “rest of the assumptions“, says Philippe Amouyel. «Epidemic monitoring in China is problematic [du fait du manque de communication de Pékin, NDLR]. Sequencing would identify these variants, although it would not prevent it from crossing borders». And to sequence, of course, you have to test.
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“We react too late”
For Yves Buisson, epidemiologist and president of the Covid unit of the National Academy of Medicine, “by the time a new variant is sequenced, it is already too late“. According to him, such a measure would still make it possible to “detect the arrival of a variant very early».
Especially since the tests are not all sequenced and the analysis can take up to ten days. “We have seen the epidemic blaze in China for at least three weeks, that is when we had to protect ourselves. As always, we react too late., he also launches. The main fear of specialists lies in the emergence of a new variant escaping the immunity conferred by previous infections and by vaccines, but it is a “disaster scenariowhich remains highly unlikely. “The challenge is to push China to communicate so that they tell us which variant is circulating in their country.“, underlines the virologist Bruno Lina.
Contacted by Le Figarothe Directorate General for Health (DGS) indicates that “the Ministry of Health and Prevention is following developments in China very closely». «It is ready to study all the useful measures that could be implemented as a result, in conjunction with France’s European partners, and within the legal framework that exists today.“, adds the DGS. Emmanuel Macron has also “requested appropriate protective measures” of the French in government.
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