For the Copom, there is market consensus that the Selic rate should be maintained at 13.75% per year, but there is doubt about the signaling of monetary easing in the meeting’s communiqué
The dollar retreats against the real on the morning of Tuesday, 21, in line with the international trend on the eve of decisions on interest rates by the Open Market Committee (Fomc) of the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank) and the Committee on Monetary Policy (Copom).
Investors operate with relief after the purchase of Credit Suisse by UBS, the studies of US authorities for the expansion of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), in case the turmoil in the banking system worsens, and the hope that the Fed will take a break on interest rate hikes tomorrow, although most analysts are predicting a further 25 basis point hike, the same as last month.
For the Copom, there is market consensus that the Selic rate should be maintained at 13.75% per year, but there is doubt about the signaling of monetary easing in the meeting’s communiqué.
This Tuesday, a series of protest acts will be carried out by the trade union centrals against high interest rates and asking for the resignation of the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto. Protests will take place in at least five capitals of the country (São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, Recife and Porto Alegre).
With the agenda of indicators emptied, investors are still awaiting the auction of post-fixed NTN-B and LFT Treasury bonds (11:00 am) and the participation of the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, in a BNDES seminar on the role of the State in investment long-term (11:40).
Yesterday, the dollar closed down, but short and intermediate interest rates closed with an upward bias, influenced by the worsening of the IPCA medians in the Focus Bulletin, while long rates had a slight drop with the American currency.
The fiscal framework remains in focus, although it is no longer expected to come out before the outcome of the Copom. According to sources, the presidents of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), and of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), “received well” the fiscal framework proposal presented to them yesterday by Haddad.
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At 9:44 am, the spot dollar fell 0.21%, at R$ 5.2324. The dollar for April retreated 0.16%, to R$ 5.2440.
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