2023-09-01 11:43:56
Investors also make profits in the foreign exchange market, after the dollar rose 4.69% in August, with investors still reflecting the Proposed Budget Law (PLOA) for 2024
The dollar opened slightly lower this Friday, the 1st, reacting to new stimulus to the real estate sector and the advance of the industrial PMI in China to the expansion zone in August and the growth of 0.9% of GDP in Brazil in the second quarter, above of the median expected by the market (+0.3%). Investors also make profits in the exchange market, after a 4.69% rise in the dollar in August, with investors also reflecting on the Budget Law Proposal (PLOA) for 2024, and the interview with the director of Economic Policy at the Central Bank, Diogo Guillen.
The adjustments are moderate amid the wait for the release of the US jobs report, the payroll (9:30 am), which should be the global driver of the day. The median of analysts consulted by Projeções Broadcast points to the creation of 175 thousand jobs in August, compared to 187 thousand vacancies opened in July.
In terms of interest rates, future rates show an upward bias, with market suspicions about meeting the zero fiscal target for 2024, but the decline in the dollar and Treasury yields limit the correction of the local curve.
Even with a dissenting vote from the majority of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) in August, the director of Economic Policy at the Central Bank, Diogo Guillen, minimizes criticism of the collegiate’s decision to start the process of cutting the Selic rate with a more aggressive drop . In an exclusive interview with Estadão/Broadcast granted on Wednesday (30), Guillen highlights the role of the total size of the interest rate reduction cycle for the convergence of inflation to the center of the target. One of the market’s biggest criticisms of the August Copom decision was the stronger Selic cut in view of the “parsimonious” fall signal in June and the 2024 inflation projection (3.4%) still above the target (3.0 %).
“I think this argument ignores what the size of the budget is going to be in terms of the total size of the downturn. There is, of course, the first interest rate decision, but there is also the interest rate budget as a monetary policy strategy. And, as we said, the budget will be whatever is necessary to reach the center of the goal”, he said.
At 9:13 am this Friday, the dollar in sight fell 0.49%, to R$ 4.9270. The dollar for October dropped 0.64% to R$4.9455.
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