Dollar rises 0.36% on correction day, but closes week with 1.16% drop By Estadão Content

2023-06-17 10:00:20

© Reuters Dollar rises 0.36% on a correction day, but closes the week down 1.16%

After five consecutive trading sessions of decline, a period in which it accumulated a devaluation of 2.46%, the spot rose in this Friday’s session, the 16th. $4.8498, but lost steam throughout the afternoon with selling pressure on the futures market. With a low of R$ 4.8088, the dollar ended quoted at R$ 4.8196, an advance of 0.36%. According to operators, there was a natural movement towards adjusting positions and taking profits in the domestic market, induced by the predominant sign of the US currency rising against emerging currencies and commodity exporting countries.

Despite the relief today, the spot dollar ended the week with a loss of 1.16% against the real, in the wake of the pause in the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US BC) and the announcement of the change in the perspective of the Brazilian rating (BB-) stable to positive by S&P Global. With a drop in nine of the 11 trading sessions in June, the dollar has devalued by 5.00% in the month and 8.72% in the year.

Thermometer of the behavior of the American currency against peers, the index rose today and again surpassed the line of 102,400 points at the maximum, with gains of more than 1% against the , after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained the expansionary monetary policy. In addition, CME Group monitoring showed that the chances of interest rates at the end of the year in the US above current levels are again in the majority. In the week, however, the Dollar Index fell more than 1%, mainly due to losses of more than 2% in comparison with . Yesterday, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised euro zone interest rates by 25 basis points and left the door open for the tightening cycle to continue.

For the chief economist at JF Trust, Eduardo Velho, a recovery of the dollar was to be expected today, with adjustments after the euphoria caused by the inflow of external resources to the stock market and the pause in monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. “With the growing prospect of falling interest rates in August, foreign inflows have become more robust in recent days”, says Velho.

Data from B3 (BVMF:) show that foreign investors invested BRL 767.681 million in the domestic stock exchange in the session of Wednesday, 14th. In June, there was an inflow of BRL 6.913 billion. As a result, the foreign capital balance for the year is positive at R$ 13.791 billion.

The exchange manager at Treviso Corretora, Reginaldo Galhardo, also attributes the rise in the dollar today to a natural correction and sees the exchange rate oscillating in the range between R$ 4.80 and R$ 5.00 in the short term. The international situation, says Galhardo, favors the real by combining the prospect of an end to high interest rates in the US and monetary stimuli in China. “The S&P review helps a lot and the framework advances in Congress even if in fits and starts. The export and speculator flow maintains liquidity in the exchange market and stops the possibility of a significant rise in the dollar”, he says.

In the morning, investors digested the deflation of 2.20 in June, above the median of Broadcast Projections (-2.12%), and the advance of 0.56% in April, while the median pointed to stability. Wholesale deflation suggests less inflationary pressures ahead and supports bets on the beginning of the Selic rate cut cycle in August or September.