One day after the board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meets to approve the second review of Argentina’s goals, an achievement that was achieved thanks to the implementation of the “soybean dollar”, the free dollars close the week short in fall and the blue touches the lowest value in three weeks. Meanwhile, stocks and bonds operate with mixed trends, in weeks where volatility became the protagonist of international markets.
Today, in the streets of Buenos Aires in Florida, the parallel exchange rate is sold at $277. This is a daily drop of $5 (-1.8%), reaching the lowest value since mid-September. If it is contrasted with its historical nominal maximum, the $338 it reached in July, is $61.
The same thing happens with financial exchange rates. The MEP dollar it is offered at $291.60, down $5 from the previous close (-1.7%). The dollar counted with liquidation (CCL) it falls $5, to $304.62.
“The soybean dollar saved the quarterly goals when they seemed doomed to default and will support a pre-election plan that will bet on postponing the correction of imbalances, with the premise of avoiding a sudden devaluation. The first stage of the plan will be contractionary, betting on containing spending and increasing debt to curb issuance, taking pressure off the gap without a jump in the exchange rate”, they emphasized from Facimex Valores.
For the second review of goals with the international organizationeconomists doubted that the Government will achieve the goal of accumulation of reserves. For this reason, aware of the challenge, the Ministry of Economy launched a $200 “soybean dollar” in September, which allowed the Central Bank’s reserves to increase. Today, without the incentive program, the monetary entity he returned to a short position and shed $58 million during the day.
At the other end of the blackboard, the The official wholesale exchange rate is trading at $149.20. They are 32 cents more than yesterday (+0.2%), while in the first week of the month it already moved at a rate of 1.3%. Thus, the gap with the blue dollar is reduced to 85%.
“If the Government continued to apply differential exchange rates for some activities, it would aim to do so for those that encourage exports, and those that prevent the outflow of foreign currency. That is why it is most likely that the Government will set special exchange rates for mining, the knowledge economy, and tourism. Now that the soybean dollar has ended, these measures are key to taking care of the Central Bank’s reserves. If they succeed, we see the parallel dollars calm, rising only to maintain the gap”, added Ignacio Morales, financial business analyst at Wise Capital.
In the stock market, the S&P Merval operates at 145,523 units, 0.8% less than yesterday. Looking at the panel of the local stock market, the biggest drops are recorded by YPF (-2.9%), Cresud (-2.9%), Banco Macro (-2.8%) and Central Puerto (-2.8 %).
Meanwhile, Argentine shares listed on Wall Street (ADR) show disparate variations. On the one hand, Transportadora de Gas del Sur (+4%), Loma Negra (+2%) and Pampa Energía (+1.6%) advanced. On the other hand, Ternium (-2.8%), YPF (-1.5%) and Grupo Financiero Galicia (-1.4%) fell.
“The external climate once again conditions the dynamics of domestic assets, beyond ephemeral moments when ADRs appear firmer, as global risk appetite remains in command under an external climate that is still too uncertain and volatile”explained Gustavo Ber, head of Estudio Ber.
The country risk dropped just six units, down to 2,762 basic points (-0.2%). Sovereign debt securities show disparate variations: abroad they show increases of 1.5% (Global 2035) and decreases of 0.5% (Global 2030).
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