Donald Trump did not wish for this status. His announcement of his candidacy in the next presidential election, in 2024, was intended to be a defining event. She was going to remind what they called in the Middle Ages “a coronation by means of a cheer”.
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Compare in your mind that status in Rome, in the year 800. Pope Leo III places the crown on the head of Charlemagne, who is Charlemagne, “and all the people of Rome cheer him: life and glory to Charles, Augustus, the Messiah of God, the great emperor of the Romans and the bringer of peace!”
It is doubtful whether Trump has heard of Charlemagne, or the eighth century, but he would feel at home among the Holy Roman emperors of the Middle Ages. So, between Charlemagne and Heinrich Harry, the coronation by fanfare was the act of ascending to power, not in order to step down from it.
Early in the morning on Wednesday (Israel time), Trump gathered a crowd of supporters in a closed hall in South Florida, to start the process of his return to the White House. When he set the date, he assumed that this speech would come at a time of euphoria for the Republican Party. The general expectation was that the party would win a huge victory in the elections for Congress and state governors, which were held last week, and he would be able to claim credit. The expectation was disappointed.
The mission: “Find votes”
The blow to Trump was particularly severe because he interfered in hundreds of election races at all levels, including elections for the offices of attorneys general and secretaries of state. The latter are entrusted with the proper administration of elections in each of the countries. Trump’s interest stems from his repeated, and unfounded, claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him. He then put the responsibility on secretaries of state in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Georgia. He was even caught on a recorded phone call imploring the Republican Secretary of State of Georgia to “find” just over 11,000 votes to give him victory.
Trump made souls for the candidates, who identified themselves completely with his doctrine and his methods. A condition and not transfer to his support was the willingness of the supported to side with his claim that the elections were rigged. Such a claim implied an intention, or a promise, to intervene next time to “find the votes”.
Republicans and non-Republicans attribute the party’s failure in key states to Trump’s meddling. He imposed ineligible candidates on the party, who passed the hurdle of the preliminary elections (primaries) by virtue of him, but failed in the general elections. Independent voters rejected them.
Stoppable?
The general opinion until a week ago was that anyone who would try to stop Trump in the Republican primaries would be wasting their time and exposing themselves to his brutal revenge. This is what happened to all his opponents in the party in 2016. The polls showed that none of his opponents would reach even 20% of the votes. No more.
The mood in the party has changed dramatically in the last week. Overnight, the feeling that Trump was unstoppable went away. The main question the party activists and its fundraisers are now asking is who will be able to take Trump’s place without upsetting his followers? Ron DeSantis, the young (44) and successful governor of Florida, is leading in this race. But Trump still leads by a considerable margin. A recent poll shows that 47% of Republicans support him.
Trump was early to set November 15 as the launch date of his election campaign. Following last week’s disappointment, some suggested that he postpone his announcement. But for Trump, such rejection was a sign of weakness, and there is nothing he hates more than showing weakness.
Although election campaigns in the US are getting longer and longer, announcing a presidential candidacy two years before the vote is unprecedented. One reason for the early start is that he likes to run an election campaign. He started his election campaign in 2020 in January 2017, right after he entered the White House. A second reason is that he wanted to claim for himself the status of the natural leader of his party. This will allow him to develop a monopoly on fundraising.
A third reason, perhaps even the main one, is Trump’s growing fear that he will be sued by the federal government for attempting to obstruct justice. Such a lawsuit involves imprisonment, and his chances of avoiding it increase when he is a candidate for political office.
It’s the economy, or not
His announcement speech was effective in most parts, if also riddled with inaccuracies and stumbling (for example, he claimed that during his presidency he prevented war “for decades”. His presidency lasted four years). He touched on matters that occupy most Americans, or are capable of occupying them, first and foremost the anxiety about the worsening economic situation.
Interestingly, after describing the “decline of America” during Biden’s first two years, he predicted that the economic situation would worsen and go away during 2024, the election year. Economists tend to agree with such an assessment. Although inflation has been raging for more than a year, only now, little by little, is its effect on the labor market starting to become apparent.
If the election year is a severe recession, as economists believe, Biden’s chances of being elected will decrease. Presidents are not re-elected during recessions (three have lost in the last half century). but…
But we saw in last week’s election that the economy doesn’t have to be the be-all and end-all, especially if other things are distracting voters. Democrats have excellent reasons to be distracted. They did so with surprising success: they talked about Trump, stealing elections and abortions. They gave a sufficient number of voters the impression that the Republican Party had irreparably fallen into the hands of a collection of extremists, who want to undermine the Constitution and control the will of a minority over the reproductive and reproductive habits of the majority.
To a growing number of Republicans, Trump is the main distraction, demanding full attention at the expense of the party’s needs. In recent years it has become clear that his presence and loudness alienate voters from the party’s candidates to the detriment of their election chances. To be honest, Democratic strategists are hoping for a Trump nomination. She is, perhaps, their only hope to return and win the White House.
Of course, this was their assumption in 2016 as well. If they came back and were deceived, Trump reminded them what he plans in his next presidency. He announced that he intends to return America to the days when it denied the climate crisis (“It will happen in 300 years”, he scoffed yesterday), weakened its alliances overseas and preferred dictators to democratic leaders.
He also announced that the greatest danger to America is not enemies with nuclear weapons, but the government bureaucracy and law enforcement agencies. According to him he will cleanse them and put an end to the “Deep State”.
Trump on rebroadcast will be Trump the Six Eli Nekham. Please see what the Israeli government is planning after spending only a year and a half in the opposition. He, if he wins, will do so after four bitter years. The blade had never been sharpened, and he was impatient to pull it out.
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