A few days ago, James Carville celebrated his eightieth birthday in New Orleans. He is no longer engaged in political marketing and campaigns, but comments on the upcoming US presidential elections. And he added his guess as to whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win the battle for the White House next Tuesday.
Not only in the United States, Carville is considered an extremely successful creator of election campaigns. In the 1990s, he led Bill Clinton’s team to the presidential elections, which he won both times. Then he went to Great Britain to work for Tony Blair, who won three consecutive parliamentary elections.
James Carville also has success in senatorial and gubernatorial elections in a number of American states. For example, in Pennsylvania and Georgia, coincidentally two key states in which a close result will decide the new president. But above all, Carville is the author of the famous statement “It’s the economy, stupid”. He uttered this sentence in 1992 when he launched Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign and summarized what it should focus on. This statement is often quoted by commentators, political scientists and historians, and it really made Carville famous.
A brilliant political strategist is certain that Democrat Kamala Harris will win the US presidential election, despite the polls sounding even and Republican Donald Trump even appearing to be gaining a slight edge in the last two weeks.
“Since Trump first became president, Republicans have been losing. Congressional elections in 2018, then presidential, congressional again in 2022. Trump hasn’t learned his lesson and hasn’t tried to build a broad coalition of supporters, instead he only speaks to his staunch supporters ,” Carville wrote in the New York Times.
It goes back to the now almost forgotten Republican primaries from the first half of this year. In Pennsylvania, Trump’s intra-party rival Nikki Haley won 158,000 votes. Even though she then (reluctantly) endorsed Trump, Carville says many of those people will vote for Harris, and that could play a big role in a tight margin in Pennsylvania. Four years ago, Biden beat Trump in this state by 89,000 votes.
But Carville also experienced a setback in his career. In 2008, he led Hillary Clinton’s campaign in the Democratic Party primaries, but in the end, Barack Obama won the nomination narrowly and after a long fight.
The strategist recommends not paying much attention to predictions and betting odds. According to him, they are influenced by cryptocurrency investors who are interested in Trump’s win. Americanist and political scientist Tomáš Klvaňa, author of the book The World According to Trump, also warned against trusting bookies in the podcast Amerikan Sen on Aktuálně.cz.
“Bettors don’t know more than others. They make decisions based on the impressions created by the media. It doesn’t have to correspond to reality at all. The poll numbers will probably turn out to be wrong, the elections will probably turn out surprisingly, we just don’t know which side,” says Klvaňa.
He tried to use Carville’s claim to Donald Trump’s advantage
If%20this%20ass%20wipe%20can%20produce%20one%20credible%20person%20who%20will%20come%20forward%20and%20say%20they%20heard%20me%20say%20anything%20like%20this%20I%20will%20give%20%24100%20to%20the%20Trump%20campaign%20https://t.co/IC2GcifMdB
—%20James%20Carville%20(@JamesCarville)%20October%2029,%202024
%20″>an account on the social network X (formerly Twitter) called Bad Hombre, who has 155 thousand followers. He completely reversed the meaning, writing that Carville expects Harris to lose in every key state, and even New Hampshire and Virginia. Two and a half million people viewed the fake tweet, then many other Trump-supporting accounts picked up on the misinformation.
Video: Aktuálně.cz reporter Dominika Perlínová from Philadelphia
Video: Oldřich Neumann, Spotlight Team
Interview: Time.news Editor with Political Strategist James Carville
Time.news Editor: Hello everyone, and welcome to Time.news! Today, we have the honor of speaking with one of the most iconic political strategists of our time, James Carville, who just celebrated his 80th birthday. James, thank you for joining us!
James Carville: Thank you for having me! It’s a pleasure to be here.
Editor: You’ve had an extraordinary career, from leading Bill Clinton to victory in the 1990s to advising Tony Blair on his successes. Now we are only days away from another pivotal moment in U.S. politics. Can you give us your thoughts on the upcoming presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?
Carville: Absolutely. While the polls are showing a tight race, my intuition tells me that Kamala Harris will emerge as the victor. The Republicans, under Trump, have consistently struggled since he took office. They’ve lost congressional elections and the presidency as well. If you look at the trend, those results tell a story.
Editor: What do you think has contributed to that trend?
Carville: It’s simple, really. Trump hasn’t adjusted his approach. He continues to appeal only to his base without trying to broaden his coalition. That’s a fatal error in a general election, especially in swing states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, where every vote counts.
Editor: You mentioned Pennsylvania. Your analysis suggests that some former supporters of Nikki Haley could sway toward Harris. Can you explain why that matters?
Carville: Sure! During the primaries, Haley secured a significant number of votes in Pennsylvania. Even though she endorsed Trump, many of her supporters may not align with him on key issues. Those suburban voters, particularly women, are crucial. Four years ago, Biden won Pennsylvania by a mere 89,000 votes. If Harris can capture those votes, it could turn the tide in this election.
Editor: That’s fascinating. You also famously coined the phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid.” How relevant is that saying in today’s political climate?
Carville: More relevant than ever. The American people are concerned about their financial security, inflation, and job growth. If Harris can effectively communicate that she understands these issues and that her policies will benefit everyday Americans, she has a solid chance. And, frankly, Trump’s focus on rallying his base over addressing these economic concerns could be detrimental to his campaign.
Editor: You’ve experienced both triumph and defeat in your career, such as during Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2008. How has that shaped your view on predicting electoral outcomes?
Carville: Every election cycle is unique. Betting odds can be misleading; often they reflect sentiment rather than reality. Many factors can change the direction of a campaign at the last minute. Like in 2008 with Clinton and Obama, we saw a shifting dynamic that was hard to gauge until the very end.
Editor: Speaking of unpredictability, there are voices cautioning against trusting betting odds or predictions, like Tomáš Klvaňa. What’s your take on that?
Carville: Tomáš is spot on. It’s critical not to let betting markets dictate your understanding of a race. They can be overly influenced by speculative forces, including some insiders who might benefit from a Trump win. It’s healthy to maintain skepticism about predictions, as they can cloud judgment and lead to complacency.
Editor: Before we wrap up, James, what key message would you leave with our viewers as we approach election day?
Carville: Stay informed but remain cautious about predictions. Every vote counts, and the landscape can shift rapidly. Engage with your community, have those important conversations, and most importantly, cast your vote. This election is pivotal for the future of our country.
Editor: Thank you, James, for your insights and for sharing your perspective with us. We appreciate your time, especially during such a crucial moment in American politics!
Carville: Thank you! Always a pleasure to talk politics.
Editor: And to our audience, thank you for tuning in! Stay connected with Time.news for more updates as we move closer to election day.