Doosan, reclaiming 4th place in reality… AI “KT has a high probability of returning to 4th place”[어제의 프로야구]

Jung Soo-bin, who hit a walk-off sacrifice fly in the Jamsil game on the 16th. Courtesy of Doosan

Doosan regained fourth place.

However, it is not yet known whether he will keep this position until the end of the season.

Doosan defeated Kiwoom 5-4 in a close match with 10 innings of extra innings at Jamsil Stadium on the 16th.

Doosan sent closing pitcher Kim Taek-yeon (19) to the mound in the top of the 9th inning, leading 3-2, but failed to stop a squeeze bunt, allowing the score to be tied 3-3.

Then, in the top of the 10th, a sacrifice fly put the team in danger of losing 3-4.

However, starting with the bottom of the 10th, leadoff hitter Yang Seok-hwan (33) hit a game-tying home run, and then with one out and bases loaded, Jeong Su-bin (34) hit a walk-off sacrifice fly to bring about the win.

With this win, Doosan now has 67 wins, 2 draws, and 66 losses (winning percentage of 0.504), putting them 0.5 games ahead of KT (67 wins, 2 draws, 67 losses, winning percentage of 0.500).

KIA’s Kim Do-young, who defeated KT with two home runs. Courtesy of KIA

On the other hand, KT lost 5-11 to the leading KIA in their home game in Suwon that day.

KT, who were down 1-4 in the top of the 7th, scored 4 runs in the bottom of the 7th to turn the game around to 5-4.

However, in the top of the 8th, they gave up a 2-run home run to pinch hitter Lee Woo-seong, and the score fell to 5-6 again.

After that, they gave up 5 points in the 9th inning and ended up losing by 6 points.

KIA’s Kim Do-young (21) hit home runs in the top of the 3rd and 9th innings, recording his 37th home run and 39th stolen base of the season.

With this win, KIA reduced its magic number for the championship to 1.

If KIA wins just one of the remaining eight games or Samsung loses just one, KIA can clinch the regular season championship.

KT also has a 24.3% chance of coming in third

Doosan has 9 games left until the end of the regular season, and KT has 8 games left.

If we ask artificial intelligence (AI) to simulate the remaining games of the season using the ‘Bradley-Terry model’, which is commonly used to forecast professional sports seasons, it picks KT as the team with the highest probability of finishing in 4th place.

AI predicted that KT has a 66.7% chance of finishing the season in 4th place or higher, while Doosan has a 37.5% chance.

With three games remaining against last-place team Kiwoom, KT holds the lead with 11 wins and 2 losses.

Doosan may feel burdened by the fact that they have three games left against their ‘Jamsil rival’ LG.

Of course, a simulation is just a simulation, and it goes without saying that we will have to open the lid to know the actual results.

▽Starting pitcher on the 17th △Jamsil: Doosan Hwang Dong-jae – Doosan Choi Won-jun △Sajik: LG Ens – Lotte Park Jin △Munhak: KIA Kim Do-hyun – SSG Kim Gwang-hyeok △Gocheok: KT Eom Sang-baek – Kiwoom Ha Young-min △Changwon: Hanwha Varia – NC Lee Jae-hak (all at 2 p.m.)

2024-09-17 13:07:09