Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq-100 futures are scheduled to open Sunday evening as investors prepare for a volatile week characterized by a critical Federal Reserve meeting and a massive wave of corporate earnings. The market retreated last week, driven by soaring Treasury yields and rising oil prices, causing the Nasdaq to tumble below June lows, according to Investors.
Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook
The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, July 29. According to Investors, markets currently see approximately a 38% chance of a rate hike this Wednesday, though those odds increase to above 80% for the September meeting. Barclays strategists noted that while the Fed is expected to hold rates next week, the central bank will likely emphasize its ongoing fight against inflation.
Beyond the rate decision, several key economic releases are scheduled for the week of July 28, as reported by Morningstar:
- Tuesday, July 28: July Consumer Confidence Survey (FactSet consensus 92.2).
- Thursday, July 30: Q2 GDP (FactSet consensus 2.5%) and the June Personal Income and Outlays report.
- Friday, July 31: July Chicago PMI (FactSet consensus 57.1).
Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tension
Energy markets have experienced significant volatility linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict. U.S. crude oil futures shot up 9.2% to $89.31 a barrel last week, while Brent crude spiked 9.85% to $96.78 a barrel for the week, according to Investors. Barclays strategists observed that oil prices have climbed back to $100 a barrel, which they suggest could weigh on growth and tighten financial conditions.
The surge follows reports that Houthis in Yemen fired missiles at a key Saudi Arabian oil port and refining location. While the U.S. did not conduct new attacks on Iran overnight—ending a 13-day strike period—President Donald Trump stated Friday night that while he is willing to listen,
he does not believe Iran is ready to make a deal. Oil prices saw a slight reprieve on Friday, falling 3.1% amid reports that Pakistan is pushing for new U.S.-Iran talks.
Big Tech Earnings and AI Spending
A significant “earnings wave” begins this week, with a focus on the sustainability of artificial intelligence capital spending. According to TipRanks, major technology companies are scheduled to report as follows:
- Wednesday, July 29: Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META).
- Thursday, July 30: Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN).
Concerns regarding “cash-burning” capital spending already impacted the market last week, with Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL) tumbling 7.8% and Tesla (TSLA) diving 17.8%, Investors reported. Barclays strategists noted that Google’s results did little to ease investor concerns regarding the financing of AI-related spending. Other notable reports this week include memory giants Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Seagate Technology.
Market Performance and Sector Trends
Last week’s trading saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 0.4%, the S&P 500 decline 0.6%, and the Nasdaq composite tumble 2.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 sank 1.1%. Despite the broader decline, certain sectors showed strength. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) rallied 3.4%, and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) rose 1.8%, according to Investors.
In specific equities, aerospace and defense stocks such as RTX, Howmet Aerospace (HWM), and ATI flashed buy signals. In the healthcare sector, Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rose in buy areas. Meanwhile, fintech firm SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is expected to report Q2 2026 earnings on July 29, with Wall Street projecting an EPS of $0.11 and revenue of approximately $1.11 billion, as reported by TipRanks.
Worth a look
