(Paris) Russia accuses Ukraine of being behind the assassination near Moscow of a Russian journalist, daughter of an intellectual said to be close to Vladimir Putin, a hypothesis deemed both possible and improbable by Western specialists in the information.
Posted at 6:36 a.m.
Daria Dugina, 29, killed in a car bomb explosion on Saturday, was the daughter of ultranationalist Alexander Dugin, an ardent defender of the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces.
Kyiv has dismissed Russian accusations that a Ukrainian woman tracked down and then killed Dugina before fleeing to Estonia. While claiming to be able to do so: “Could we send 400 grams of TNT to Russia? In theory, yes. Could we make a bomb? Yes,” said a senior Ukrainian intelligence official on condition of anonymity.
But “for what profit? No one in Ukraine really knows who Dugin is. Who could blame his daughter? Killing her makes no sense.”
Since the seizure of the Crimean peninsula by the Russians in 2014, Ukraine has had time to develop clandestine networks in its neighbor.
“I think since March that there is a Ukrainian structure installed in Russia, a logistics structure and […] operational,” says Gérald Arboit, intelligence expert at the National Conservatory of Arts and Crafts (CNAM).
“Able”
Kyiv also benefits from “American and British advisers”. But on such a project, “we had to do a reconnaissance, follow (the target) and bring in the team that will engage in the act. A single person cannot be responsible for the recognition and the operational part,” he adds, referring to the possibility of support from Russian opposition groups.
In fact, such an operation is all the more complex in a context of open warfare. “Dugina’s assassination took place in Moscow, (a location) that would be incredibly difficult for Ukrainian intelligence to penetrate,” said Colin Clarke, research director at the Soufan Center, a New York-based think tank.
He considers the hypothesis improbable, while considering that “special forces or Ukrainian intelligence agents are probably capable of such an attack”.
Experts also note that the assassination of the daughter of a man certainly in support of Russian President Vladimir Putin, but not necessarily very influential, serves the cause of the strongman of the Kremlin. It can indeed provoke a strong feeling of rejection, which would feed, if necessary, the justifications for a general Russian mobilization.
“I do not exclude that Douguina was killed by the Russians to develop the war in Ukraine in an unconventional way”, notes for his part, on condition of anonymity, a member of the French intelligence community.
« Manipulation »
A targeted assassination, in this case that of a young woman, would also be counterproductive for the image of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is counting on his sympathy capital to obtain the Western military aid he needs. against the forces of Moscow.
“I don’t see the rationality for the Ukrainians of such an operation, which is very complicated to set up. And I don’t see the Americans and the British letting them do it, ”says Alexander Grinberg, analyst at the Jerusalem Institute for Security and Strategy (JISS).
It all looks like FSB manipulation to weaken Kyiv. Especially since Dougin has no real influence in the Kremlin.
Alexander Grinberg, analyst at the Jerusalem Institute for Security and Strategy (JISS)
Colin Clarke confirms that a symbolic assassination carried out by Kyiv would probably not target this type of target and suspects an operation “led by another entity”, including from inside Russia.
In any case, the Russian accusations lack substance, says Alexandre Papaemmanuel, professor at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris and intelligence expert.
“We can be surprised by a narrative delivered very quickly by the Russian services. Generally, for a political assassination, the investigations take much longer to succeed, ”he notes, observing very active Russian and pro-Russian propaganda on the subject since Saturday.
Nathan Sales, intelligence adviser to the Soufan Group, refrains from discussing the specific case but admits his “skepticism” about the Russian version. “We know that Putin’s regime has in the past murdered Russian citizens to further its twisted domestic and foreign political agendas,” he said.