The visit of the American Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to Israel left among Israeli senior officials complex feelings and growing concern – not in terms of the issues nor in terms of the demands made, but in terms of the dynamics.
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From the point of view of senior officials in Jerusalem, a series of demands made by Lincoln during his visit to the region leads to the conclusion that Israel is already on a collision course with its greatest friend in the world. It is widely believed that the explosion against Washington is only a matter of time, and the hourglass is running out quickly.
One of the main demands that the Secretary of State came with is a significant increase in the humanitarian aid that enters Gaza. The demand in itself is less of a problem: as soon as Israel surrenders to the very claim that it is mandatory to allow the introduction of humanitarian goods into the Gaza Strip, even if this goes against the war strategy – then the scope and amount of aid become a relatively secondary matter.
Falls in Kiryat Shmona (photo: social networks, use according to section 27 a)
The big trouble is the dynamics – the dynamics of the Israeli concessions in the difficult dialogue it has been conducting with the US since the beginning of the war. In this negotiation Israel has already failed – the ease and pace of the concessions opened the door to the next, much more dramatic demands, and time is working against us.
This is due to the simple fact that the schedule of pressure on Israel will not be determined according to the developments within it or even in the war in the Gaza Strip, but according to the dynamics of the elections in the USA. So the level of American demands is expected to rise very soon, and we must prepare for it now.
The thesis that became the prevailing opinion in the war cabinet, and from there spread to other forums, is that one must agree to what can be agreed to – thus gaining time for the continuation of the war. This thesis caused the political echelon in Israel to give up too quickly on the points where it was possible to reach a base of resistance, and first and foremost – on the issue of humanitarian aid.
Instead of insisting on every subsection, wasting time, and above all – instead of conditioning the amount of humanitarian aid on progress in our humanitarian event – the issue of the abductees – we hastened to comply with the American demand. We gave up and hurried to justify our giving up with the idea that “humanitarian aid is the currency with which Israel buys additional fighting time.”
But it quickly became clear that the currency of humanitarian aid suffers from severe inflation, and in a short time we reached much more problematic territory, the area of issues where we can no longer give up. This time the demand is really not just humanitarian aid.
The following list of demands already includes a discourse on the continuation of the war, the participation of the Palestinian Authority in the leadership in Gaza, the return of the citizens to the northern Gaza Strip, and the climax is of course the demand from Israel to agree and even commit to a political process towards the establishment of a Palestinian state, as a condition for any future regional settlement. These are the points that have already been raised, and in which Israel is already at a disadvantage in the international aspect.
The pressure levers are ready
It’s hard to blame the Americans for being out of proportion, being unfair, or lacking logic. The administration in Washington, which opened the presidential election year, needs the achievements that it needs to bring to the Arab countries, in the opinion of the international audience, and even more importantly – in the opinion of the American audience, to those democratic voters whose voice is no longer guaranteed to President Joe Biden in view of the war in the Middle East.
Humanitarian aid to Gaza is no longer seen as an American achievement and a significant Israeli concession that can be presented to the public. Well, the demands are only increasing and will continue to increase – until the point of a head-on collision. The point of imminent conflict that is already visible on the horizon is, as mentioned, the American demand for the return of Gazan citizens to the northern Gaza Strip.
Unlike the issue of humanitarian aid, the issue of returning residents to the north of the Gaza Strip will probably not be able to be passed – neither in the political-security cabinet nor in the government. The return of the residents to northern Gaza in the midst of the fighting will be perceived by many parties in the political system as the actual end of the war. The decision will be voted down and will not pass, but the American pressure may only increase.
The explosion will lead to threats, and here the Americans have no shortage of cards and pressure levers on Israel. Starting with the military aid (both that which we purchase with our own money, and also the large package promised by President Biden and currently stuck in Congress), to the American veto in the UN Security Council. At some point and not very far away, the government in Israel will have to make difficult decisions and choose between Israel’s strategic interest, Even at the cost of a confrontation with Washington, and maintaining good relations with the Biden administration, which are also a strategic interest in themselves.
The “Norwegians” give a fight
Away from the spotlight and camera lenses, behind the scenes, the idea of overthrowing the government and leading to elections is not only alive and well, but is getting stronger. The best minds (and wallets) of the protest movement are working overtime to formulate the next steps. It happens quietly (because you don’t engage in politics during war), but it happens all the time.
The plan to go to the streets and reproduce even more strongly the protest of last year certainly remains the same. The opening shot will be given depending on the situation at the front and the rate of release of the reserves. According to estimates, the protest wave is expected to pile up and intensify in a few weeks, around mid-February or a little later. If the reality does not surprise us, we will see crowds take to the streets and demand that Benjamin Netanyahu take responsibility and leave, at the same time as the fighting in Gaza transitions to a reduced phase not only in the north, but also in other areas of the Strip. As far as the protest activists are concerned, then it will already be permissible to stop being silent and stop being state-minded.
Alongside the state, or more precisely – behind the scenes of the official state line, in the distant corridors of the Knesset building, emissaries of various kinds work continuously with the aim of mapping the coalition, with an emphasis on the Likud faction. To locate and label every disgruntled and anxious MK for his political future and try to make him a partner in the mission of advancing the elections.
The work of mapping is not particularly difficult (unlike the work of persuasion). A long line of Likud faction members are racking their brains with thoughts, what will happen to them in the next primaries, in the next elections, in view of the poor state of their party in the polls. Some of them – the “Norwegians” who entered the Knesset thanks to the ministers who resigned in their favor. Some of them – those who won realistic places on the list, but are not sure that they will be able to reproduce their success in the next elections as well. Each and every one of the Likud members who are considered “wavering” or “having low chances of being elected again”, in the eyes of the envoys, are “potential putschists”.
The variety of temptations is known from a multitude of political precedents, and these precedents are not lacking in the history of Israeli politics: the guarantee of a safe seat in the next Knesset, a position as a minister, a good job arrangement for life. In short, everything that the law forbids is absolutely forbidden even to hint at openly. So how do you overcome a legal obstacle on the way to a political goal of recruiting defectors, who at the moment of truth will vote in favor of overthrowing the government? It is worth checking in the not-too-distant history, and there you can easily find solutions.
It is true that the contacts and explorations are done secretly and quietly, but there is no political threat that is not taken into account by Netanyahu and his immediate environment. Netanyahu, suspicious by nature and with rich political experience, is well aware of the temptation attempts and recruitment efforts of the potential putschists. It was precisely from the fear of such an organization that the idea was recently born to return to the Knesset some of the ministers who resigned within the framework of Norwegian law.
In the meantime, the experimental balloon with Minister Amichai Shikli didn’t really work: a number of Norwegian Knesset members organized themselves with inspiring speed, and informed the necessary people in the Prime Minister’s Office that they would prevent any minister who resigned to fire one of the Norwegian MKs from returning to the government. The attempt failed, Shikli stopped the proceedings, and for the time being is in no hurry to return to the Knesset.
The idea that is being considered now, in view of the organization of the Norwegian MKs, is the collective resignation, in one fell swoop, of at least five Norwegian ministers out of the nine serving today on behalf of the Likud. In this way, it is possible, theoretically, to overcome the counter-organization of the Norwegian Knesset members. This is because a group of ministers who resign will be able To vote in the Knesset as MKs in favor of returning themselves to the government table – thus you will send home the MKs who raise suspicions around the Prime Minister.
The only problem with the original idea is, as usual, a total lack of trust in the Likud ranks. In the very unstable situation of the current government, the ministers prefer to keep their places at the government table, because it is not known if the exercise will work, and if a temporary resignation will not become a fait accompli with no way back.
It should be noted that the distrust is two-way. Netanyahu also trusts almost no one. In today’s reality, he has too many unanswered questions: Will and when will Gantz leave the emergency government? Will the parties interested in overthrowing the government succeed in realizing their plot and recruiting defectors in the ranks of the Likud? And will – if and when all this happens – Gideon Sa’ar will make a decision to stay in the government or will he leave together with Gantz? For now, not only Netanyahu and his people do not have answers to the above questions. It is likely that the decisions have not yet been made, and the moves have not yet been completed. After all, for the time being, we are not talking about politics, because the war continues.
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