December has begun, and Kommersant offers an economic forecast for the month. Experts answer questions about the dollar against the ruble, changes in world oil prices, inflation and the euro against the dollar.
1. What will be the dollar / ruble exchange rate?
2. What will inflation be?
3. What will be the oil prices?
4. What will be the rate of the euro against the dollar?
Igor Nikolaev, Director of the Institute for Strategic Analysis, FBK Grant Thornton:
Photo: Gleb Shchelkunov, Kommersant
1. The current dynamics of the strengthening of the dollar and the weakening of the ruble in December will continue, and we can expect course 75–76 rubles per dollar, and even more. But this is an optimistic assessment from the point of view of the ruble, it may well weaken and stronger.
2. After 1.1% percent inflation in October it will be smaller in November, which is encouraging, but very restrained. Taking into account the fact that an important pro-inflationary factor is actively involved – the increased weakening of the ruble, in December we can again see inflation at a fairly high level of 1.1-1.2%. This means that annual inflation will go to the 8.2-8.3% region.
3. The collapse of prices for oil will not be, the dynamics with a suddenly appeared omicron will be torn, but a slight decrease awaits us. I foresee a price in the range of 70 to 75 rubles per barrel of Brent. The main factor that will influence is the new restrictions due to covid. This is an important risk factor for the economy and oil demand.
4. I think that the situation in December is unlikely to change in any direction, and the rate will be at the level of $ 1.13-1.14 per eurosas at the end of November. There is no reason for drastic changes.
Dmitry Shagardin, General Director of BSPB Capital Management Company:
Photo: Bank Saint Petersburg
1. Significant impact on foreign exchange well has the demand of non-residents for ruble assets, which is subject to significant fluctuations depending on the situation in the global financial markets and developing ones. The main influence, in my opinion, will be provided by the dynamics of the spread of the new strain of coronavirus, the situation on the oil market and the assessment of the prospects for curtailing asset buyback programs by the world’s largest central banks, which now depends on the incoming inflation data. In addition, there is a large buyer of foreign currency on the domestic local market – the Ministry of Finance, which daily performs transactions within the framework of the budgetary rule. The baseline scenario assumes exchange rate fluctuations in December in the range of 73–76 rubles per dollar.
2. Judging by the developing trends and dynamics, inflation in December will amount to 0.8-0.9% and will reach the level of 8.0-8.1% on an annualized basis. According to the Bank of Russia report on inflationary expectations of the population and business, we passed the peak values in October-November.
3. Prices for oil, in my opinion, will be subject to high volatility. The prospects for the spread of the new strain are negative for oil, as the introduction of new restrictions should reduce demand. On the other hand, the worsening epidemiological situation increases the likelihood that OPEC + will halt production growth. I believe Brent oil will be in a wide range of $ 74-82 per barrel of Brent.
4. Course euros the dollar has been under pressure for over six months. Perhaps the main reason for this lies in the interest rate differential – investors now expect a faster hike from the US Federal Reserve than from the ECB. In case of active spread of the new strain in December, the EUR / USD rate may win back part of the losses, returning to the levels of 1.13–1.15 dollars per euro.
Sergey Suverov, investment strategist of MC “Arikapital”:
Photo: Igor Ivanko, Kommersant
1. Well The ruble against the dollar will depend on the decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the key rate, the Fed’s rhetoric regarding monetary policy, the development of the geopolitical situation around Russia and, to a large extent, on the new strain of the coronavirus. In a negative scenario – the rapid spread of the omicron throughout the world, as well as the recognition of its greater lethality – the ruble could weaken to about 78 rubles per dollar. If this does not happen, the Russian currency may well strengthen to 74 rubles, if, of course, geopolitics allows. The ruble may be supported by another increase in the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia.
2. Monthly inflation in December it may reach 0.8%. Despite the tough monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the increased level of price growth will continue due to high inflationary expectations, seasonal price revisions by retail chains before the New Year, and the effect of the ruble weakening on commodity items in November.
3. On prices for oil the situation with the new strain of coronavirus will largely influence. In the event of a negative scenario and the introduction of new restrictions and lockdowns, prices for Brent crude oil may drop to $ 70-72 per barrel, as the demand for raw materials will decrease. In a more optimistic scenario, prices may rise to $ 78-80 per barrel – an additional support factor will be the likely adjustment towards a decrease in the rate of OPEC + production growth.
4. The exchange rate of the dollar to euros will remain at around 1.13. If the coronavirus threats persist, it will be difficult for the Fed to decide on a forced cut in monetary stimulus, even despite high US inflation. This may prevent the dollar from strengthening further.
Vadim Zasko, Dean of the Faculty of Taxes, Audit and Business Analysis of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation:
Photo: Higher School of Economics
1. Average monthly well, most likely, will be fixed around the level of 76 rubles per dollar. It seems that the depreciation of the national currency recorded in the last decade of November is due to a greater extent to the emotional state of the market than to the real weakness of the ruble. First of all, we note the nervousness in connection with the expectation of negative scenarios in the world oil market in the event that OPEC + decides to significantly increase production volumes, as well as the traditional fears of a deterioration in economic indicators due to a worsening epidemiological situation. However, the world has more or less learned to live in a pandemic.
2. Regardless of the development of the pandemic situation, December will traditionally be marked by an increase in consumer demand, which will certainly have an impact on the acceleration of inflationary processes. I think monthly inflation will be approximately 1.0-1.1% in December, slightly ahead of October and November. At the same time, the annual inflation rate will exceed 8%.
3. Price of oil Brent will be in the “convenient” for Russia corridor of $ 73-80 per barrel. It is necessary to take into account the factor of record gas prices, correcting the growth in demand for oil raw materials. And if earlier the oil market “spurred” gas prices, then the current year actually forms opposite trends and the output of oil products to the sectors of the economy, traditionally closed with gas raw materials.
4. The end of 2021 will be characterized by a certain strengthening of the US dollar against euros, which is not least due to the rather difficult overcoming of the pandemic in the pan-European space. Given the incoming news about partial lockdowns in a number of European countries, we can expect the trend to continue in favor of the strengthening of the dollar. And in December their ratio will remain at the level of 1.13-1.1 dollars per euro.
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