Kommersant offers an economic forecast for November. Experts answer questions about what will happen to the dollar against the ruble, how world oil prices will change, what inflation will turn out to be, and how the dollar and euro will behave in the world currency market.
1. What will be the dollar / ruble rate, why?
2. What will inflation be?
3. What will be the oil prices?
4. What will be the rate of the euro against the dollar?
Ruslan Grinberg, Scientific Director of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences:
Photo: Dmitry Dukhanin, Kommersant
1. The current situation when ruble strengthening, logical. The “green transition” announced in the West is not as fast as expected, and we have some opportunities. Oil and gas prices are growing, which is good for us, and in November we can expect a continuation of the situation, a decline in the exchange rate to 68-69 rubles per dollars… In the long term, however, this means: the better we are now, the worse then …
2.C inflation everything may be, a lot depends on how they count, but most likely nothing special should happen, a slight acceleration may occur. Everything will depend on the length of the lockdown. The likely inflation rate in November is 0.6%, a slight plus or minus in one direction or another.
3. I wouldn’t be surprised if oil price in November it will reach the border of $ 90 per barrel, although, most likely, volatility during the month will be significant, and the price will fluctuate widely below this figure.
4. This is the only thing that has not undergone major changes for many years. Euro was born with a rate of 1.17 dollars per euro, this rate remains approximately the same, inflationary processes in Europe and the United States are similar: growth is approximately the same there and there, so the ratio of this pair will remain at this level.
Alexey Vedev, Head of the Financial Research Laboratory, Yegor Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy:
Photo: Dmitry Azarov, Kommersant
1. The increase in the key rate in October by 75 basis points, to 7.5%, led to the strengthening ruble – the exchange rate fell to 69–70 rubles per dollar. The rise in interest rates will lead to further strengthening to the level of 68.5-69.5 rubles per dollarstaking into account the full confidence of financial market participants in the further increase in the key rate.
2. Inflation is at its peak since March 2015 and is 8% year-on-year. I believe that the uncertainty about the lockdown will help keep it high. At the same time, the increase in the key rate by the Bank of Russia has a delayed effect. By the end of November, prices will rise by 1%.
3. Oil price will remain at the level of 80-85 dollars per barrel of Brent. Maintaining this level will be facilitated by the operation of the OPEC + agreement, instability in the gas market, as well as high global inflationary expectations, as well as optimistic forecasts of economic growth in the current and next year.
4. The recovery of the American economy in 2021 is faster than in the eurozone (6% versus 5%). And last year, the American economy showed less decline than the European one. These circumstances led to the strengthening of the dollar to euros… I expect further growth of the dollar to the level of 1.15 dollars per euro.
Vladimir Tikhomirov, independent financial analyst:
Photo: bcspremier.ru
1. Based on the price movement that we see after the October increase in the Central Bank’s discount rate, the rate with a high degree of probability will remain in the corridor of 70-72 ruble per dollaras it is now. Perhaps a slight strengthening of the ruble in December to the level of 69.5 rubles per dollar.
2. I’m expecting a monthly inflation in the range of 0.6–0.8%, and the annual rate will remain at the level of 8–8.2%. A slight slowdown in inflation is possible, since the effect of social payments will decrease, the negative impact of a low harvest of horticultural crops, plus the strengthening of the ruble will help.
3. Oil prices may target and reach the corridor of $ 70-80 per barrel of Brent in November. I do not expect further growth up to the level of $ 90 per barrel for two reasons. The first is the weakening of demand in the world due to the pandemic and stagnation of the population’s income. The second reason is seasonal: in November-January, the demand for oil and oil products is traditionally low.
4. The rate in November and until the end of the year will remain in the corridor 1.15-1.17 dollar for euro taking into account the uncertainty of policy in the European Union, associated primarily with the formation of the German government. There are no serious reasons for moving in one direction or another. Most likely, the ECB will adhere to a policy similar to the FRS: not to resort to raising rates, taking strong steps to strengthen monetary policy. Rather, it is the story of 2022.
Vladimir Bragin, Director for Financial Markets and Macroeconomics Analysis, Alfa-Capital Management Company:
Photo: UK “Alpha Capital”
1. What we have seen in recent days is an attempt by the market to find equilibrium – whether it be the market for gas, oil, ruble, and so on. The first shock reaction has already passed, speculative actions begin in the opposite direction, and on rubles it will also affect, and we see it in the last days. Therefore, my forecast is 70 rubles per dollar.
2. Looking forward to further acceleration inflation, as in the previous month, and YoY will be 7.8%. On a monthly basis, this will correspond to a corridor of 0.4–0.6 percentage points.
3. Some cooling of demand is expected, I think that prices may even reach $ 70 per barrel, but my range is $ 75-80. The upcoming OPEC meeting, reduction in consumption, demand. Gas production is being optimized, demand will fall, the price will adjust, and this will contribute to the cooling of the market oil… That is, there is a general tendency for oil prices to adjust, but not strongly and not for too long.
4. On euros I now look quite negatively, due to the decline in gas prices. But we must understand that this decline is the result of already negative changes in the economy in Europe, a process that is “shorting out”. Therefore, I believe that the European currency is expected to drop to the level of 1.15.
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