Few research bodies and services are completely correct when making their forecasts, which have to be revised upwards or downwards periodically. And more in environments of high uncertainty like the current ones, with the war in Ukraine, the escalating energy and food prices… Axesor, currently EthiFinance Ratings; Economic Studies Center of Madrid- Rey Juan Carlos University (CEEM/URJC), the Institute of Economic Studies (IEE), ‘think tank’ of the CEOE; and Metyis are the institutions or organizations that came closest in their growth forecasts for 2022 to the final result, with a deviation of just the tenths the first three and dand -2 tenths the fourth. On the other side, the Complutense Institute of Economic Analysis (ICAE), the Government and the services of studies of Santander and BBVA were the furthest away, with a deviation of 1.5 points.
These are some of the data from the Diana Esade 2023which this business school has been carrying out since 2010. It is an instrument that indicates how close or deviated the institutions are when predicting the macroeconomic evolution of Spain. Once the 2022 financial year is closed and the increase in GDP (5.5%) and the unemployment rate registered at its end (12.9%) are known, the comparison is made.
The analysis reveals that the deviation between the average forecasts (6.1%) and the increase in gross domestic product (GDP) with which the Spanish economy ended in 2022 (5.5%) has stood at 0.6. This is lower than that of the previous year (2 points). When the last three years are studied, it is seen that Repsol, IEE y Metyis They are the institutions with the highest average success rate in their forecasts regarding the growth of the Spanish economy. On the other hand, the estimates carried out by Ceprede, CaixaBank e ICAE They are the ones that have been furthest from the final result, with 6.23%, 6% and 5.87%, respectively.
In its latest edition, this analysis includes the estimates made for the consumer price index (IPC) and the underlying rate (the one that excludes unprocessed food and energy prices, that is, the one that is more structural), given the current situation of the Spanish economy, characterized by a significant rise in the general level of prices ( 5.7% in December) and, especially, core inflation (7% in December).
In a context in which inflation surprised with its escalation, ICAE y Funcas They are the institutions that have moved the least in their forecasts to the CPI with which 2022 has ended, with 3.3 and 3.5 points. Those that were furthest away were the IEE (4.9 points), CEOE (4.8), BBVA and Banco de España, with 4.5 points in both cases. In terms of underlying inflation, CEEM/URJC, Equipo Economico and Intermoney are the institutions that have moved the least away from the real data.
The deviation between the average forecasts (1.6%) and the general inflation rate with which 2022 ended (5.7%) was 4.1 percentage points. It is the second highest difference observed in the last 13 years without taking into account that of 2021(5.5).
In relation to core inflation forecasts, the data path is more limited, with information only from 2017. In this case, the deviation between the average of forecasts (1.2%) and the real rate for 2022 (7 ,0%) It is the highest in history, 5.5 percentage points.
Regarding the forecasts of employment, CaixaBank, Gobierno, BBVA, CEPREDE and Intermoney are the institutions that have come closest in their forecasts to the unemployment rate with which 2022 has ended. Those that have been furthest away are Equipo Económico (3 points), the Chamber of Spain (2.5) and AFI (2, 4).
The deviation between the average forecasts (14.7%) and the unemployment rate with which 2022 ended (12.9%) stood at 1.8 points. This is considerably lower than last year (5 points).
The starting data for Diana Esade are the economic, unemployment, and inflation forecasts made by leading public and private institutions in Spain that publish their results throughout the year. The forecast panel prepared by the Savings Banks Foundation (Funcas) in September of the previous year is used as a source.
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The Funcas panel is the result of a survey carried out every two months among the different analysis services that make it up, which are a total of 19. To complete the panel, and for comparison, the forecasts of the Government, the Bank of Spain , the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the OECD. Those furthest away are Equipo Econónico (4.9 points), Cámara de España (2.5) and AFI (2.4).
Last year, the OECD, with a forecast of 5% for Spain, and the Repsol research service, with another of 5.7%, were the closest to the increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 and which stood at 5.2%, according to Diana Esade 2021.