Title: Majority of Economists Optimistic as Chance of U.S. Recession Diminishes, Survey Shows
Date: [Current Date]
In a recent survey published by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), an overwhelming majority of business economists have expressed optimism about the U.S. economy, with the likelihood of a recession within the next year decreasing significantly. The findings of the survey shed light on the shifting sentiment of economists and reflect positive economic indicators.
According to the survey, approximately 71% of respondents reported that the odds of an economic downturn within the next 12 months were around 50% or less. This marks a sharp reversal from April, when 44% of economists projected a more than 50% chance of a recession within the year. Moreover, more than one-quarter of economists now believe that the likelihood of a downturn is at 25% or less.
Carlos Herrera, the NABE Business Conditions Survey chair and chief economist at Coca-Cola North America, commented on the survey results, stating, “A majority of panelists is more confident about the economy over the next year as they see the probability of a recession diminishing.” The increased confidence among economists can be attributed to rising sales and profits over the past three months, and a decline in material costs at the beginning of the summer.
The NABE survey also highlighted that businesses were feeling optimistic about future profits over the next three months, further bolstering confidence in the economy. Additionally, wages at firms remained unchanged during the second quarter, marking the first time since 2021. Rising wages have been a key factor contributing to inflation, and the stabilization of wages is seen as a positive development for economic stability.
The survey was conducted between June 30 and July 12, and it included responses from 52 NABE members. These findings come at a time when there are signs of cooling inflation in the U.S. In June, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by only 0.2% from the previous month, and annual prices increased by just 3%, the lowest level in two years, according to the Labor Department.
The slow decline in inflation, combined with a resilient labor market, has given hope to some economists that the U.S. economy will successfully steer clear of a recession this year. Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Federal Reserve President, expressed optimism, stating, “I feel like we are on a golden path of avoiding recession.”
These findings provide a positive outlook for the U.S. economy as it navigates potential economic challenges in the coming months. As economists continue to monitor key indicators and developments, the hope is that this optimistic sentiment will continue to drive economic growth and stability.