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The second round of the presidential election will pit Emmanuel Macron against Marine Le Pen. On the economy, the two finalists often have opposite views.
They oppose almost everything, except on the main subject of the campaign: purchasing power. To help the French to overcome increasingly difficult end of the month, they share the same software: that of whatever it costs. As during the Covid-19, with one or the other at the Élysée, the State will continue to sign checks to households to relieve them. This position certainly worked in their favour. On the question of purchasing power, they were judged as the most credible, tied, in a survey carried out before the first round.
Emmanuel Macron, as outgoing president, had his government’s decisions speak for him
As of this autumn, the price of gas has been blocked, the increase in that of electricity limited to 4%. The bill at the pump has been reduced since April 1 with rebates of 18 cents on a liter of fuel. Measures that it will extend the necessary time. The far-right candidate was the first to make it a major theme of her campaign to attract the vote of the working classes, the big losers from the drop in purchasing power.
And it promises them a bright future with substantial salary increases. Plus 10% up to three smic, with an exemption from employer charges to encourage increases and exemption from contributions for smicards. Finally, she wants to drastically lower the VAT. In particular on fuel, dropping it from 20% to 5.5% the day after his election.
Realistic?
No, it is impossible, because the level of VAT is decided at European level. It will therefore have to start by negotiating with the Twenty-Seven before it can lower it. The candidate of the National Rally has softened her anti-European speech a lot. She no longer wants to leave the euro. This is a 180 degree turn from his two previous candidacies.
Despite this development, it is difficult to see this eurosceptic capable of turning the majority of the Twenty-Seven on such a climate-sensitive subject. The EU supports a high VAT on energy, because it is part of the tools to discourage consumption, in the hope, in finereduce carbon emissions.
Europe continues to be a topic between the two winners of the first round. Emmanuel Macron makes it a priority level of his policy of economic sovereignty, while Marine Le Pen first thinks “national” with, for example, a French sovereign fund to finance reindustrialisation.
Pension reform is another subject on which they have diametrically opposed proposals
Marine Le Pen wants to accelerate the age of departure to 60 for those who have contributed for 40 years, while Emmanuel Macron wants, on the contrary, to delay it to 65. The far-right candidate also wants to reindex pensions to inflation. A break with a practice in force for thirty years to enhance the purchasing power of seniors.
The president-candidate, who missed his reform, offers him a new simplified version, centered on age. This reform is based on the principle that underpins its entire programme: the desire to encourage work. He also wants RSA beneficiaries to give their time.
Finally, he is the only candidate with the ambition to return to full employment. He also boasts of having initiated a significant drop in unemployment. All these promises have been budgeted by the candidates, but their respective evaluation is questionable, the battle between the two rounds will undoubtedly relate to the costing of these two programs.
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