2023-07-26 14:35:21
The global economy is showing signs of a slight improvement. In its latest forecasts published on Tuesday July 25, the International Monetary Fund now anticipates global growth of 3% this year, against 2.8% forecast in April. This remains the weakest forecast for thirty years. In detail, one piece of data is surprising: a stronger than expected rebound in the Russian economy.
Published on: 07/26/2023 – 14:35
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The Russian economy is expected to grow by 1.5% this year, more than double what the IMF had been predicting so far. Daniel Leigh, head of the division of the studies of the world economy at the IMF, explains the reason for this improvement in spite of the continuation of the war. ” It’s particularly the big budget support, the government budget support, and you see the results in the data on trade, construction, industrial production, it supports these growth results “, he analyzes.
Support at the cost of a heavy deficit: 6% of GDP this year, estimates the IMF. Added to this is strong domestic demand and, despite the sanctions, still solid exports. ” India and other countries compensated for this reduction, continues the economist, resulting in exports that have not really declined, overall, for Russia. »
Sanctions that are not in vain
For Daniel Leigh, this does not mean that punishments had no effect: You still have to remember that if you look at the Russian economy as a whole, there is a big shortfall, that means that, at the economic level, before, there was growth of 2%, 3%, 4%, they had less percent last year, and 1.5% is still historically low. »
It remains difficult to quantify precisely the impact of the sanctions.
Read alsoThe Russian economy in full collapse
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