2023-11-26 01:51:57
At 35 years old, with no previous experience in public management and raised in a golden cradle, Daniel Noboa assumed the presidency of Ecuador last Thursday. In a short and pragmatic inauguration speech, the youngest president in the history of the Latin American country called to combat violence and misery in the 18 months that his mandate will last, in which he will also have to deal with political instability. Noboa was elected to finish the unfinished term of the outgoing Guillermo Lasso, who in May dissolved Congress, giving way to early elections to dribble a political trial for corruption. A complex situation in the National Assembly, where Correism is the first force, the president’s first friction with his vice Verónica Abad and a still unfinished cabinet mark a scenario of great uncertainty.
According to the researcher at the Latin American Strategic Center for Geopolitics (CELAG), Andrés Chiriboga, the country’s situation will demand quick results from the new government. “After the grace period that voters always grant to an incoming president, Noboa will have to show results quickly. “The availability of fiscal resources is very restricted. In terms of security, particularly, the time is too short to show tangible results,” he expressed in dialogue with Página/12. For her part, Saudia Levoyer, a professor at the Simón Bolívar Andean University, highlighted that Noboa’s great challenges are four: fiscal deficit, security, employment and social security. “However, in his speech he only talked about security and employment. He has not made any specific announcement so we must wait to see where his work will turn,” Levoyer noted.
By linking the insecurity problems that Ecuador is going through with unemployment, Noboa said at his inauguration that he believed “in a State whose first objective is to reduce violence and turn progress into a habit,” highlighting that “to combat violence we must address unemployment”. Between 2018 and 2022 the homicide rate quadrupled and rose to 26 murders per 100,000 inhabitants. Noboa will receive a prison system on fire, where clashes between organizations have left more than 460 dead since 2021. The young businessman promised to militarize borders, increase the installation of security cameras and build safe prisons on the high seas.
Adjustment to the masses or to the oligarchy?
More than 323 thousand Ecuadorians are unemployed according to official data, and more than 50 percent of work is informal. Poverty, including extreme poverty, affects 38 percent according to official figures. To boost the economy, Noboa toured the United States and Europe to attract investments and loans, although he promised that he will balance compliance with foreign debt obligations, which amounts to about 47.4 billion dollars, with the needs of the people. Ecuadorian.
Chiriboga recalls that Noboa comes from a traditional oligarchic group, something that does not invite us to think about heterodox measures. “A quick measure to raise funds to finance public investment and inject liquidity into the economy would be to collect debts from large economic groups, including your own, which are large debtors and tax evaders. Another option would be to legally reverse the restrictions on the self-financing mechanisms of the State that former President Lenin Moreno launched to fulfill commitments with the IMF and financial groups,” remarked the sociologist from the Pontifical Catholic University of Ecuador, for whom the president “has to fight with his class, the debt creditors, the IMF and the banks, or will have to adjust more to the majorities.
Doubts and friction in the office
After assuming the head of state in an investiture ceremony held in the National Assembly, Noboa appointed 16 ministers and left four portfolios open: Interior, Economy and Finance, Women and Human Rights and Telecommunications and Information Society. Noboa indicated that by Sunday he hopes to have a complete cabinet that so far stands out for its parity (eight women and eight men) and, especially, for the youth of some of its members.
In the president’s inaugural speech, Chiriboga observed “a risk of arrogance, arrogance and a lot of ignorance in critical decisions and appointments.” Vice President Verónica Abad did not attend the official lunch organized at the Carondelet presidential palace after the inauguration to eat at a market in Quito where she was received by vendors. When asked by journalists, Abad assured: “Our celebration is with the Ecuadorian people.” Just hours later Noboa sent her to Tel Aviv so that she could be a “collaborator for peace and prevent the escalation of conflict between Israel and Palestine.”
Along these lines, Chiriboga continues, the new president appointed a cabinet with many fresh figures but with very little experience. “Your Defense Minister Giancarlo Loffredo, for example, is a Tiktok influencer who is an expert in martial arts and gives self-defense advice. We hope he will pleasantly surprise us, but for now his first statements show nervousness and ignorance about the State portfolio and the role that it should play in the fight against insecurity”.
Weave alliances in Congress
Daniel Noboa was elected deputy in 2021 but Ecuadorians knew that surname more because of his father, the millionaire banana exporter Álvaro Noboa, who was a presidential candidate and failed five times. Noboa does not have a majority in the National Assembly, where his coalition has just 13 of 137 seats. Last week he allied himself with the Citizen Revolution (main force with 51 seats) and the right-wing Christian Social Party (with 18 seats). From them he expects support to promote his reforms.
“The test will be when they send laws from the government,” Levoyer warned this newspaper, adding: “The Social Christian Party has said no to taxes for 20 years. The Citizen Revolution has among its priorities amnesty or pardons or any solution that “Allow the processes to be removed from your leadership. When they do some new action along those lines, the role that each space takes will be clearly known.” For his part, Chiriboga stated: “With this, Noboa scores a point in the face of public scrutiny since it gives a sign of being able to generate unity and reduce tensions between politicians. People are fed up with that and it was one of Noboa’s letters of introduction. campaign. Now Noboa and the Social Christian Party have the president of the Assembly, they control the economic commissions of Parliament and if things get stuck in the plenary session, the president has the veto power that the Constitution gives him.
The role of the Citizen Revolution
Noboa’s rise was surprising in an early election that was marked by unusual political violence that included the assassination of one of the presidential candidates, Fernando Villavicencio. Noboa got into the runoff thanks to his correct performance in the presidential debate prior to the first round and his pragmatism to avoid falling into the commonplaces of the right. Correismo, even defeated in the presidential elections, retains an important political volume, becoming the first force in the National Assembly and governing the most important departments of the country.
Levoyer recalls that the political agenda of the Citizen Revolution has not changed in recent months. “It is not known how much longer they are willing to wait to bring in their leaders. I think they know that if they do not renew they do not have much room for action. Much of what the new president wants to do must be done quickly. In February there is a meeting elections again and everyone wants to run,” remarked the teacher and researcher.
For Chiriboga, the hard vote that the party retains after years of banning and persecution cannot be disregarded. But that capital, Chiriboga warned, is insufficient to win the presidency again and in that sense he explained: “The sectors of the vote that reject polarization and who see the new, personal success as an option to solve their problems, are distant from him. to the Citizen Revolution. In recent years, former President Correa’s movement has not known how to connect with these sectors while making a hard bet on the successful past. The Citizen Revolution has the challenge of not breaking down and reinventing itself without deforming or simply abandoning its essence.”
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