Israel’s October 27 election looms as a pivotal test for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with former military chief Gadi Eisenkot emerging as his strongest challenger. Polls show Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party leading Likud, fueled by his security credentials, personal losses in the Gaza war, and promises of military reform.
The election, framed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, has seen a seismic shift in political dynamics. Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, 66, has positioned himself as a reformist alternative, leveraging his military background and personal tragedy to appeal to a war-weary electorate. A recent Channel 12 poll placed Yashar at 23 seats in the 120-member Knesset, one ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud, with Eisenkot personally favored by 43% of voters compared to 34% for the prime minister.
Eisenkot’s Rise: From Military Strategist to Political Outsider
Eisenkot’s campaign has centered on a 10-point platform emphasizing national security, democratic reforms, and military modernization. His pledge to establish a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 attack—a demand echoed by tens of thousands of protesters—contrasts sharply with Netanyahu’s coalition, which has proposed a politically influenced commission. The only signal that he sent was that Israel should be a state of law,
said Tal Elovits, a researcher at the Molad think tank, highlighting Eisenkot’s appeal to voters seeking accountability.
His personal story has further galvanized support. Eisenkot’s son, Gal, and two nephews died in Gaza, a loss that has humanized him amid Israel’s prolonged conflict. Through these steps, we will ensure that Israel is a Jewish, democratic, powerful, advanced and secure state,
his campaign asserts, blending security rhetoric with promises of institutional renewal. The former general has also vowed to extend compulsory military service to ultra-Orthodox Jews and Arab citizens, a move that directly challenges Netanyahu’s alliances with religious parties.
His stance has resonated with voters disillusioned by the prime minister’s right-wing coalition, which faces criticism for prioritizing ideological goals over national security.
Polls, Projections, and the Netanyahu Challenge
Recent polling underscores Eisenkot’s momentum. A Maariv survey found Likud at 20 seats, its lowest since June 2025, while Yashar climbed to 23. The poll also revealed that a significant majority of Israelis believe Iran “won” the Middle East war, a sentiment that has eroded support for Netanyahu, whose approval rating plummeted from 40.5 per cent in early March to 29.4 per cent in June. The prime minister’s coalition, meanwhile, faces internal strain over judicial reforms, corruption investigations, and the unresolved future of Gaza.
Eisenkot’s appeal extends beyond security. Analysts note his ability to tap into middle-class anxieties about stability. The middle class and upper middle class… look for someone that will look responsible, boring, and I think that Eisenkot has that appeal,
said Elovits. His understated style contrasts sharply with Netanyahu’s charismatic leadership, a contrast amplified by the prime minister’s 76 years and multiple corruption trials.
Yet Netanyahu remains a formidable opponent. The prime minister has positioned himself as the defender of national unity, arguing that a broad national government
can secure Israel’s regional ambitions. After we have removed the Iranian existential threat, the broad national government can make peace within ourselves,
he declared, framing his campaign around security and continuity. However, his alliances with right-wing parties and reluctance to address settler violence have alienated segments of the electorate.
The Uncertain Path to Victory
The election’s outcome hinges on several unresolved factors. Yashar’s lead could narrow if opposition parties like Naftali Bennett’s Together consolidate support, though a recent Maariv poll suggested Bennett lags behind Eisenkot in both seat projections and personal favorability.
Eisenkot’s ability to translate military expertise into political success also remains unproven.
As the vote nears, the question remains: Can Eisenkot’s blend of security pragmatism and institutional reform overcome Netanyahu’s entrenched power? The answer will shape Israel’s political trajectory for years to come.
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