Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific reached record-breaking levels in September 2026, signaling an El Niño event that scientists describe as potentially the strongest on record, with impacts already surpassing those of 2015.
The equatorial Pacific Ocean’s sea surface temperatures hit 3.05°C above normal in September 2026, the highest anomaly since 2015, according to climate scientists analyzing data from the region. This development has sparked warnings that the current El Niño event could set new global temperature records, with experts citing unprecedented warmth for this time of year.
This is probably going to be the superlative El Niño event of our lives so far
said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources (UCANR).
Record-Breaking Temperatures and Historical Comparisons
Measurements from the equatorial Pacific show temperatures 3.05°C (5.49°F) above average in September 2026, slightly surpassing the 3.02°C (5.44°F) anomaly recorded during the 2015 El Niño, according to Jeff Berardelli, a climate specialist. Meanwhile, a separate analysis from Sweden’s meteorological agency SMHI noted that temperatures in a key region had reached 3.07°C above normal, a
unparalleled for this time of year
as described by Kim Wood, an associate professor at the University of Arizona.
These readings align with a broader pattern of intensifying El Niño events linked to human-caused climate change. Julia Cole, a palaeoclimatologist, emphasized that the current event
doesn’t look like a fluke
pointing to a long-term coral record that shows a shift toward stronger El Niños as global temperatures rise.
It looks like part of a century-long pattern of strong El Niño events happening more often as the planet heats up
she said.
Impacts and Global Warming Risks
El Niño events typically raise global temperatures, and this year’s event is no exception. Scientists warn that this year, as well as 2027, are at
risk of being among the hottest years ever recorded
with the current El Niño amplifying the effects of long-term warming.
The warming is already disrupting weather patterns. In the Pacific Northwest, for example, dry conditions are expected, while southern parts of the country may face wetter conditions. Gustav Strandberg of SMHI highlighted that the early arrival of this El Niño—with the peak often occurring around Christmas—could lead to extreme weather
and consequences for ecosystems, including coral bleaching.
Uncertainties and Regional Variability
Despite the alarming data, uncertainties remain about how this El Niño will unfold. While forecasters estimate a 70% chance of it being record-setting, the exact regional impacts depend on complex interactions between ocean currents, atmospheric pressure, and global climate systems.
Klimatförändringen för in oss i en ny och okänd värld
Strandberg said, noting that the connections between ocean, atmosphere, wind, and precipitation are so complex.
For Southern California, the effects may not be felt until late fall or early winter, with potential for heavy rain, flooding, and coastal erosion. The LAist newsroom reported that
uncertainty remains around how exactly this winter’s El Niño will play out here
despite a 90% chance of a powerful event.
The immediate focus is on monitoring the event’s progression and preparing for its impacts. With the global temperature record at risk, governments and climate agencies are urging heightened vigilance. However, the full extent of this El Niño’s consequences—ranging from economic losses to ecological damage—will only become clear as the year progresses. As one scientist put it,
This is probably going to be the superlative El Niño event of our lives so far
.