2023-04-24 08:54:00
If the elections to the Sejm were held on Sunday, April 23, 35.7 percent. votes would be won by ZP; in second place would be KO (25.5 percent of support); the third result would go to Konfederacja (11.2%), according to the Estimator poll for DoRzeczy.pl.
The Sejm would also get: Left (9.7 percent), PSL (6.8 percent) and Poland 2050 with 6.2 percent. support.
In the presented results of the survey, only people who declared that they would vote in the parliamentary elections and specified which party they would vote for in the elections to the Sejm were taken into account – emphasizes Estimator.
If the poll had taken place on this Sunday, the estimated voter turnout would have been 61 percent.
According to the survey, the United Right (including Law and Justice, Solidarna Polska, Republicans), which currently wants to vote 35.7 percent. of respondents, compared to the survey of April 4-5, recorded a decrease by 0.4 points. percent
Currently, 25.5 percent of voters want to vote for the Civic Coalition (including Civic Platform, Nowoczesna, Zieloni, and Inicjatywa Polska). respondents who declare their participation in elections and know how they will vote. Since the last survey KO recorded a decrease of 0.3 points. percent
Compared to the beginning of April, an increase (by 0.2 percentage points) was recorded by Konfederacja (including New Hope, Ruch Narodowy); currently it boasts a result of 11.2 percent. support.
The survey also asked about support for the New Left (including, as it was written, SLD, Spring, and Together). 9.7% would support it. respondents (decrease by 0.6 percentage point)
If the elections to the Sejm were held this Sunday, the next place would be taken by the Polish People’s Party – Coalition of Poland with 6.8 percent. support (decrease by 0.2 percentage point).
In turn, Poland 2050 by Szymon Hołownia would get 6.2 percent. votes. Compared to the previous survey, the Hołownia party recorded the largest decrease among all parties (by 1.7 percentage points) and allowed itself to be surpassed by the peasants.
3.5 percent would vote for Non-partisan Local Governments. surveyed. Such a result would not allow them to enter the Sejm. Outside the Sejm, there would also be: Kukiz’15 (1% of support, a decrease of 0.2 points) and Agrounia/Pocznienie (0.2% of support).
According to the authors of the study, such results would allow ZP to introduce 203 deputies to the Sejm (32 fewer than in the 2019 elections), KO would win 133 seats (one less than in the last elections). The Confederation would receive 47 seats (36 more than in 2019). The New Left would introduce 38 MPs to the lower house (loss of 11 seats), PSL – 21 MPs (loss of 9 seats). Poland 2050, which did not exist in 2019, would now win 17 seats.
According to the study, ZP with the Confederation would have a total of 250 parliamentary seats, and the other opposition parties – 209 seats.
The poll also asked about a different variant of the party’s start in the election. And so – if ZP (PiS, SP, Republicans) started in a coalition with the Kukiz’15 party – it would win 35 percent. votes. In this variant of the question KO would have won 25.7 percent. votes. The third place would go to the coalition of Poland 2050 and PSL-KP (14 percent of votes). 10.9 percent of respondents would vote for the New Left. The last party to enter the Sejm would be Konfederacja, which in the event that ZP started with Kukiz’15, and Polska 2050 with PSL-KP, would win 10 percent. votes.
In this variant, the United Right would introduce 193 deputies to the Sejm; KO – 124; Poland 2050 and PSL-KP – 62; New Left – 40; Confederation – 40. Opposition parties would therefore have 226 seats, and United Right with Confederation – 233 seats.
The Estimator study was conducted on April 20-21, 2023 on a nationwide, representative sample of 1,059 adults using the CATI method of computer-assisted telephone interviews. The question was which of the following parties or coalitions would you vote for if elections to the Sejm were held next Sunday. (PAP)
Author: Daria Kania
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