Elections 23J | The best and worst of each electoral program, by the economists Javier Santacruz and José Carlos Díez

2023-07-23 11:01:16

A person exercises their right to vote during the general elections, at the Ramiro de Maeztu College, on July 23, 2023, in Madrid (Spain).
EP

‘assets’ has asked two prestigious economists, Javier Santacruz and José Carlos Díezboth collaborators of this economic medium of Grupo Prensa Ibérica, who analyze the most outstanding positive aspects and also the three most striking negative aspects of the economic programs of the four main parties politicians who attend general elections on July 23: PSOE, PP, Vox and Sum.

Javier Santacruz’s assessment

PSOE

THE BEST. Promote the Spanish market for green bonds or sustainable financing: the Spanish stock market has an extraordinary opportunity to become a benchmark for green financing. Implement short training and requalification program plans aimed at new technologies. Ensure financial inclusion throughout the territory. WORST. Guarantee that the SMI is 60% of the average wage: as the SMI approaches average wages, continuing to raise it will put downward pressure on the average wage and, therefore, impoverish. Create a public digital platform for electronic invoicing: its implementation is worrisome in a country of micro-SMEs and the self-employed. Extending the threshold for accessing mortgage relief measures to average income (37,800 euros): creating the moral hazard that whatever happens, the winner is the mortgagee and the loser is the bank, introduces unprecedented legal uncertainty.

PP

THE BEST. Expand the so-called administrative silence as a default rule in the relationship with the Administration. Stop excess regulation. Boosting the legislative sandbox: For the development of new technologies, especially AI, a regulatory sandbox makes perfect sense. WORST. Update the SMI: this is not the time to continue raising an SMI that is already very high (a salary of 1,000 euros already has a company cost of almost 1,500 euros). Improving access to the minimum vital income and its effectiveness as a labor insertion tool: aid that could be given more efficiently is multiplied. Always revalue pensions with the CPI, instead of focusing on improving the sustainability of the system.

Vox

THE BEST. Put an end to the artificial borders created by the autonomous communities: create single license systems, market unity… Require face-to-face attention in the administrations. Exonerate the self-employed from the quota if they do not arrive at the SMI. WORST. Initiate the process of devolution to the State of the competences in Education. Recover the deduction for habitual residence. Strengthen border control for all products from third countries.

Sumar

THE BEST. Eliminate gender pay gaps. Introduce the principle of strategic autonomy in industrial policy. Strengthen technology transfer to SMEs. WORST. Raise the SMI above the annual CPI. Using the Margin Observatory: confusing margin with profit is the first mistake. Intervene in markets affected by unfair or non-competitive practices, which endanger supplies or cause inflation and additional costs for households and other companies, something that is totally outside the framework of the EU.

The evaluation of José Carlos Díez

PSOE

THE BEST. Referencing the tax reform to the white paper presented last year and abandoning the demagogy that only the rich, the banks and the electric companies are going to pay taxes. Create a national productivity council to focus all economic policy on that variable. Recover a clear vocation of industrial policy, based on technological development. WORST. Leave the program in the hands of State commercial technicians, who are codified to be general directors. Failing to present a credible plan to consolidate public debt or productivity growth with concrete and measurable measures. Not proposing an in-depth reform of the Administration, taking advantage of digitization to free up public resources to guarantee the welfare state.

PP

THE BEST. Change the current system of Next Generation funds: from very bureaucratic subsidies to tax deductions via corporate tax. They speak without complexes about artificial intelligence and call for taking advantage of the start-up law, which includes very attractive taxation to attract talent and international digital companies to Spain. Create a national water authority to improve the quality of our regulation, segmented into 2,500 municipal or association concession contracts. WORST. There are no clear measures that explain how they are going to reduce the high public debt. They go to the topics of reducing superfluous spending. They start their program talking about knowledge and innovation and the music sounds good, but Spain has to modernize the governance of its universities and research centers, professionalize technology transfer offices, connect them with companies, and develop venture capital and the capital markets that finance and scale up these projects. Not identifying inequality and especially 30th percentile poverty as a problem, they continue to identify it solely with employment.

Vox

WORST. His proposal to lower taxes, especially personal income tax, which would reduce tax collection in half, sharply increasing the deficit and debt and forcing a new bailout as in 2012. His energy policy, denying climate change and preventing Spain from taking advantage of the industrial development and employment of renewables. His protectionism, reminiscent of the black era of Franco’s autarky from 1939-1959.

summer

THE BEST. Abandon the populist axis of those above and those below and return to a classic scheme of employment and wages of IU, the PCE and CCOO. His intention to reduce inequality and poverty. Prioritize the industrial policy associated with the climate transition. WORST. His obsession with nationalizing the electricity and banking sectors and planning their prices and interest rates, something that European rules do not allow. His ineffective public spending proposals, without discriminating by income level and which would increase the deficit and public debt, increasing the risk of a new bailout as in 2012. Continue proposing expansionary fiscal policies in an inflation crisis, to generate more inflation and impoverish the poorest.