The Italians face this Sunday their elections more decisivewhich could make history if, as all the polls indicate, the far-right Giorgia Meloni becomes the first woman to come to power in Italy at the head of the country’s most right-wing government since the end of World War II.
The leader of the Brothers of Italy (FdI) and the coalition that also includes the far-right League, led by Matteo Salvini, and the conservative Forza Italia (FI), led by Silvio Berlusconi, They are the big favorites for a victory that is expected to be overwhelmingas the polls give him almost 20 points ahead of the progressive Democratic Party (PD) of Enrico Letta and his small center-left allies.
Salvini and Berlusconi’s links with Vladimir Putin’s Russia, Meloni’s and his partners’ tug-of-war with Europe, tras to moderate his eurosceptic speechor the fear that a very large majority could change the Constitution without consensus have marked an unprecedented summer campaign that has failed to arouse the interest of Italians, with nearly 40% abstaining and undecided.
a long day
Almost 51 million Italians are called to vote this Sunday in a very long electoral day that will start at 07:00 local time (05.00 GMT) and will end at 23.00 (9:00 p.m. GMT), closing time of the polling stations and when the exit polls are known.
in these elections 600 parliamentarians will be elected (400 deputies and 200 senators) compared to the current 945 (630 and 315) after a reform approved in a referendum, with 4,193 candidates for the Chamber of Deputies and 2,152 for the Senate, while the region of Sicily (south) will also vote for the election of its president and the renewal of its assembly.
Also, almost 2.7 million young people will vote for the first time and, after the recent modification of article 58 of the Constitution, they will be able to do so not only for the Chamber of Deputies, but also for the Senate.
The lombardy regionwhose capital is Milan, is the one that counts with the highest number of voterswith 7.5 millionwhile Rome is the city with the largest electoral body: more than 2 million, while as a curiosity the town of Rocca de’ Giorgi (north) is the opposite and only has 25 voters, according to data provided by the Ministry of the Interior.
Meloni, undisputed favorite
The formation of the last Italian governments have required complex pacts between parties that almost never managed to obtain a sufficient majority, but on this occasion the right appears united, at least on paper, with Meloni as its undisputed leader.
On the last day allowed by Italian law to publish polls, 15 days before the elections, FdI was around 25% of the votes, a meteoric rise from 4% in the 2018 elections thanks to Meloni and his role as the only opposition to Mario Draghi’s national unity government, leading his coalition to 45%.
The PD is the second party, with 21.5%, while its coalition with other small progressive forces only reaches 27.2%, a difference of almost 20 points with its rivals.
Giuseppe Conte’s 5 Star Movement (M5S), with which Letta broke her electoral agreement after leading to the fall of Draghi, has 15% that places it ahead of the League (12.3%) and FI (8%) and that will allow him to play an important role in the opposition.
While the so-called “third pole”, formed by the centrists Acción and Italia Viva, and with whom the PD did not reach an agreementstands at 6.7%.
Abstention and the electoral system, keys
in the results abstainers and undecided will play an important rolewhich according to these latest polls was around 40%, a figure so high that it can by itself change any result, although this time it seems unlikely that the right will not obtain an absolute majority.
Also the complex electoral system is keywhich favors large coalitions.
It’s about a mixed system in which 61% of the seats are allocated by the proportional method -based on the percentage of votes obtained- and 37% depend on a majority with single-member constituencieswhere the coalition -not the party- that gets one more vote will take the seat, while the remaining .2% is reserved for foreigners.
Experts agree that the right has better used the characteristics of the electoral law and that with their great coalition they could add up to 70% of parliamentary representation if they win in all the single-member associations and the much more fragmented left, already warned that this could allow them to make changes to the Constitution without needing the consensus of the parties or the ratification of citizens in a referendum.