2023-04-28 20:30:03
United States, China and Taiwan influence in the fierce dispute for the presidency of Paraguay, between two conservative liberals. Regardless of who wins the election, the next head of state will have political difficulties governing.
Márcio Resende, RFI correspondent in Buenos Aires
Paraguay goes to the polls this Sunday (30) to elect a new president for the next five years, in addition to deputies, senators and governors. In a country where there is no second round, every vote counts in an open-ended contest.
Will Paraguay remain under the command of the Colorado Party, which has been in power for over 70 years? Or will the country change, like all its neighbors, and opt for alternation?
What is at stake is the real possibility of Paraguay having a political alternation, marking a turning point in the governance of the country for more than 70 years governed by the same party, Colorado.
“This party has 2.5 million members. They are more affiliated than actual votes in elections, such is the dependence of people on that party to get work in the State”, explains political analyst Alfredo Boccia to RFI.
The two candidates with a chance of winning are Santiago Peña, from Colorado, and Efraín Alegre, from the Authentic Radical Liberal Party (PLRA), an acronym that leads a coalition of various opposition parties, from right to left. All united with the sole purpose of beating Colorado.
“We are at the fork of choosing between the continuity of the model or some kind of institutional reform of the State”, tells RFI the historian and political analyst, Milda Rivarola.
“These are not two ideologically different proposals in dispute. Both candidates are conservative liberals. There were no debates on proposals or programs in these elections. But what is being debated is the possibility of curbing corruption, the penetration of organized crime in political bodies, at high levels of corruption”, adds the specialist.
From an ideological point of view, there are no significant differences between Santiago Peña and Efraín Alegre, the difference is in what they represent.
Peña represents the party that has governed Paraguay since 1947, including during the 35 years of dictator Alfredo Stroessner. The candidate himself, incidentally, praises the former dictator for not having to worry about elections and having applied his model without question.
For only four years, between 2008 and 2012, the Colorado Party did not govern. It happened during the mandate of the then Bishop Fernando Lugo, who, incidentally, was removed in a few hours in a procedure considered irregular.
State equipment
The Colorado Party set up the State, making public employment conditional on affiliates and making clientelism its instrument of power.
“People are tired of corruption, the lack of health and education services and the Colorado way of governing. Impunity is another factor that makes people see a change of government with some hope. The conditions for a change are given. If the opposition doesn’t win this time, I don’t know when they’ll have another chance like this,” observes Boccia, a political columnist for the Paraguayan newspaper Ultima Hora.
“The Colorado Party is a clientelist party. It is not characterized by presenting good proposals to citizens, but by managing the clientele. Public employment, hiring, bidding, imposing exceptions for those who do not vote for them”, exemplifies Rivarola.
Economist Santiago Peña, just 44 years old, was president of the Central Bank and finance minister under former president Horacio Cartes, who governed the country between 2013 and 2018. With more than 40 companies, Cartes is the most powerful businessman in Paraguay.
Efraín Alegre is 60 years old and is running for the presidency for the third time. He was Minister of Public Works in Fernando Lugo’s government, removed with the help of the Liberal Party itself, but now they have returned to unite to defeat Colorado.
“The continuity of the Colorado Party does not imply any positive change. On the contrary, it would deepen the problems. The alternation would encourage interest in structural transformations”, evaluates economist Verónica Serafini to RFI.
manipulated surveys
In Paraguay, it is a chimera to believe in polls. The polls are commissioned by the political parties and act as electoral marketing tools. They are used to influence voters, indicating which candidate is ahead, according to who paid for the study.
The poll that everyone is looking at is that of the Brazilian company Atlas. As a foreigner, she is seen as exempt.
“According to the only research that is not contaminated and is more or less reliable, we have a technical tie. The others, made here in Paraguay, are not transparent to anyone. They give absurd numbers in favor of one or the other. They are manipulated”, says Alfredo Boccia.
According to the Brazilian Atlas, Efraín Alegre has 38% while Santiago Peña has 36%. If these numbers are confirmed on Sunday, the opposition will have a historic victory. In Paraguay, there is no second round. A candidate is elected with only one vote more than his opponent.
United States influence not result
In recent years, violence in the country has increased, with organized crime drug trafficking with Brazilian factions such as the Comando Vermelho and the PCC crossing the Paraguayan border.
On the other hand, Paraguay had good economic growth, but this “boom” did not reach the population. Informality in the labor market reaches 64% of the population (in Brazil, 40%; in Latin America, 53% on average).
“Paraguayan economic growth was based on the production and export of commodities with little added value and with little distribution effect. Despite many years of growth, it has been highly volatile and unpredictability affects the quality of investments. The expansion of the agricultural frontier had negative effects on the environment. On the other hand, low public investment in health, education and public services did not improve the quality of growth”, analyzes economist Verónica Serafini.
In the popular perception, however, the biggest scourge is corruption, pointed out in all opinion polls. And this point affects former president Horacio Cartes and, consequently, his current candidate, Santiago Peña. First, the US government classified Cartes as “significantly corrupt”, accusing him of developing a system of widespread bribery of legislators, judges and party politicians. For analyst Alfredo Boccia, it is the “Paraguayan monthly allowance”.
“Both in the political and judicial spheres, an unprecedented amount of corruption. A huge number of prosecutors and judges who, at least until recently, received a fixed salary from Cartes himself. We can also say that he bought the Colorado Party”, considers Boccia.
In January, the US Treasury Department imposed financial sanctions on Horacio Cartes. The next step is believed to come from the Justice Department: an extradition request.
“It affected Peña’s campaign. It is the first time that we see a campaign with more posters of opposition candidates than of Colorados. There are protests in the Colorado grassroots because they don’t receive money for the campaign. The lack of money can be seen in the austerity of the Colorados”, describes Boccia.
According to analyst Milda Rivarola, these sanctions, in addition to jeopardizing Santiago Peña’s campaign finances, made businessmen begin to prefer an opposition victory for fear of being affected by these reprisals.
“What is happening behind this whole campaign is that, for the first time, business sectors are supporting the opposition. Businessmen have always supported the Colorado party, but now a part supports the opposition. They fear that international sanctions could affect them and look at political change with less fear”, points out Rivarola.
“Of course, Horacio Cartes is helping his candidate behind the scenes because one way to protect himself from sanctions is for Santiago Peña to win, but Cartes does not appear”, underlines Alfredo Boccia, remembering that the current Paraguayan president, Mario Abdo, also disappeared from the scene. for being an internal opponent of Cartes.
While Santiago Peña was lonely in his campaign, Efraín Alegre created the slogan “homeland or mafia”.
China and Taiwan play geopolitical cards
Paraguay has a particularity for the world, especially at this time of dispute between the United States and China, in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Since 1957, Paraguay has been one of only 13 countries in the world that recognize Taiwan’s independence and have no formal trade relations with China.
To try to improve relations with the United States, candidate Santiago Peña says that nothing will change if he wins the elections: Paraguay will continue to recognize Taiwan, something that bothers China.
On the other hand, Efraín Alegre promises to review this issue. Paraguay is a major exporter of soybeans and meat, but it cannot export to China, losing the world’s largest market.
To reach the Chinese market, Paraguay needs to export through Brazilian and Argentine companies. At the same time, the country imports a lot from China, having a considerable trade deficit.
“Efraín Alegre promises to break relations with Taiwan or, at least, start relations with communist China. And Santiago Peña says he will maintain the ‘status quo’ with Taiwan. Taiwan’s diplomatic policy is a portfolio policy. We believe that there is a lot of bribery to politicians by Taiwan”, explains Alfredo Boccia.
“This alliance with Taiwan is very expensive for Paraguay, especially for the export sectors. But Taiwan is supported by the United States and Paraguay has never taken strong decisions against its northern ally”, ponders Milda Rivarola.
Last month, this path was followed by Honduras, which severed relations with the island, adopting the concept of one China.
It was the fifth country in Latin America to break with Taiwan, after Panama, El Salvador, the Dominican Republic and Nicaragua.
Governance at risk
Whoever wins, the risk of political turmoil for the next government is high.
“Santiago Peña is a CEO, a company manager. He is not a political leader. He is tutored by someone far more powerful than he is, Horacio Cartes. If he wins, he will not rule. Who will govern is Cartes. And without Cartes, he won’t be able to govern either because he doesn’t have his own power in the Colorado party”, indicates Milda Rivarola.
“In the case of Efraín Alegre, his coalition is very broad. There are 23 parties and movements. He will have to govern with everyone and satisfy the demand of these voters, something, to say the least, challenging”, concludes the historian.
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