Time.news – The mid-term elections on November 8 concern above all the Congress, with the renewal of all the members of the House of Representatives and a third of the senators. We have predicted in our previous articles an easy victory for the Republican Party in the lower house and a more than likely victory in the Senate (see “Will the Republican Party be a hit in the next congressional elections?” of October 21 ).
But these mid-term elections also present another challenge, the renewal of 36 governors (out of the 50 governors currently in office). Each of the 50 states of the American federation is in fact headed by a governor, elected in principle for 4 years (or 2 years only in New Hampshire and Vermont).
The most important political figure of the States
In the United States, the governor is arguably the most important political figure in every state. By comparison, a governor has more powers than any head of state in Europe, including his broad power to issue decrees and his right to veto any law passed by the legislative chambers of his State.
People have become aware of this recently, especially during the Covid-19 crisis. Some governors (Democrats) have, for example, imposed strict confinements and compulsory vaccination policies while others (Republicans) decided, on the contrary, not to oblige anyone to be vaccinated and to leave schools open, places of worship and businesses, as if nothing had happened. This has resulted, over the past two years, in a phenomenon of massive exodus of inhabitants from Democratic states (California, New York) to Republican states, such as Texas or Florida.
Some, like Governor Andrew Cuomo in New York, have even forced elderly people with Covid-19 to stay in hospices in order to avoid a possible saturation of state hospitals (creating a real carnage in hospices), while others, like Governor Ron DeSantis in Florida, have taken the opposite measure, precisely to protect seniors from the virus.
Andrew Cuomo never recovered from that scandal, being forced to resign in August 2021 (officially due to sexual harassment accusations) as Ron DeSantis became a national star and will likely be the Republican Party’s next presidential nominee. 2024 presidential election.
Control of the conduct of national elections
Mention should also be made of the important role played by the governor in each of the states in terms of the drawing up of electoral constituencies, the organization and control of national elections, in particular presidential elections (a subject which proved to be decisive during the election of Joe Biden in November 2020). We then understand why a terrible battle is currently raging between the Democratic and Republican parties for the positions of governors, hundreds of millions of dollars and a multitude of twisted tricks in support.
The precedent for the elections of two governors in November 2021
To date, 28 governors are Republicans while 22 are Democrats. The last gubernatorial elections took place a year ago, on November 2, 2021 in two states, one in New Jersey, won very narrowly by Democrat Phil Murphy (while the polls gave him 8% of ahead of his Republican competitor, a completely unknown candidate) and the other in Virginia, won to everyone’s surprise by Republican Glenn Youngkin, against Democratic Party heavyweight Terry McAuliffe (see our November 4, 2021 article “Joe Biden humiliated by a ‘Let’s go Brandon’ election”).
The trend was therefore already set in these 2021 elections, namely that even in the most left-wing states of the country, the Democratic candidates are no longer at all certain of winning.
20 governors for Democrats, 30 for Republicans
On November 8, 14 governorships will therefore not be at stake, including 8 held by Republicans and 6 held by Democrats. Of the 36 governorships that will be at stake, it is reasonable to estimate that the Democratic candidates will win in the following 14 states:
Californie – Connecticut – Colorado – Hawaï – Illinois – Maine – Maryland – Massachusetts – Michigan – Minnesota – New York – Oregon – Pennsylvanie – Rhodes Island
Republicans are expected to win in the following 22 states:
Alabama – Alaska – Arizona – Arkansas – South Carolina – South Dakota – Florida (Ron DeSantis, who is running for a second term, should win with 10 points ahead of his Democratic competitor, unheard of in Florida) – Georgia – Idaho – Iowa – Kansas – Nebraska – Nevada – New Hampshire – New Mexico – Ohio – Oklahoma – Tennessee – Texas – Vermont – Wisconsin – Wyoming
In total, the day after these elections, the Democratic Party should therefore have 20 governors (14 + 6) while the Republican Party should have 30 (22 + 8).
It should be noted that in some of these states (Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico), the announced victory of a Republican governor is a huge surprise. For example, in Arizona, Republican candidate Kari Lake, a former local TV star and Donald Trump protege, literally disintegrated her Democratic competitor Katie Hobbs in recent polls, the latter having made the fatal mistake of refusing to debate television.
A possible Republican victory in Michigan, New York, Oregon and Pennsylvania?
What’s more, because of the current deep nation-wide feeling of hatred for Joe Biden (see our last September 16 article “52% of Americans want Joe Biden impeached”), some observers even believe that Tudor Dixon, the Republican candidate, could win in Michigan against Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer, who has imposed the nation’s toughest Covid lockdowns.
Similarly, Doug Mastriano, a member of the Pennsylvania Senate, who was very involved in the denunciation of electoral fraud held in his state in November 2020, could become the next governor of Pennsylvania despite a deficit. 7 points in the polls. And it’s not impossible that Christine Drazan, the Republican candidate, could win in Oregon (Oregon has not elected a right-wing governor since 1982).
Even Republican candidate Lee Zeldin could be victorious in New York State, facing Andrew Cuomo’s replacement Kathy Hochul (the last Republican governor to be elected in New York was George Pataki in 1994). It should be noted that the two candidates are currently neck and neck in this state which voted +23% for Joe Biden in November 2020 (60.9% for Joe Biden against 37.7% for Donald Trump).
If the Republican Party is victorious in Michigan, New York, Oregon and Pennsylvania, it will no longer be an electoral defeat for the Democratic Party, it will be a real humiliation.
So much so that theestablishment of the Democratic Party could then decide to have the President resign before the end of his mandate, that is to say before the 2024 elections (for example for health reasons), so that Joe Biden stops coaching the Party Democrat in its vertiginous fall.