6.6 million. This is the number of electric cars sold worldwide in 2021, half of them in China. But the future availability of raw materials like lithium worries the International Energy Agency (IEA), in its annual report on electrification published on Monday.
“Governments, industrialists and investors must remain vigilant and creative to avoid problems with the supply of essential minerals,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.
According to the IEA, lithium needs are particularly critical: they should be multiplied by six by 2030, to 500 kilotons, requiring the opening of 50 new mines. These minerals are mined mainly in countries like Australia, Chile or the Democratic Republic of Congo.
A doubling of sales
Sales of electric cars have doubled compared to 2020. This now represents 10% of new car sales. They continued to accelerate at the start of 2022 with two million units sold in the first quarter (+75% over one year). Sales that have been strongly driven by public subsidies, the number of which has doubled in 2021 (nearly 30 billion euros worldwide). Manufacturers, for their part, have multiplied by five the number of vehicles available between 2015 and 2021: around 450 electric models are now on sale.
Europe produces a quarter of electric cars, but controls very few raw materials, just like the United States. “The European and American governments have made strong commitments to develop battery production capacities, but the majority of the supply chain should remain Chinese until 2030″, underlines the IEA. China produces three-quarters of lithium-ion batteries, the dominant technology, and controls more than half of the processing and refining capacity for lithium, cobalt and graphite.
Alternative battery technologies, recycling, but also incentives to buy smaller cars could help save these minerals.
In the short term, sales could also be hampered by rising prices for raw materials used in batteries, as well as logistical problems linked to the war in Ukraine and the Covid-19 confinements in China.
The IEA recommends increasing taxes on thermal vehicles while gradually reducing subsidies for the purchase of electric vehicles. The agency also recommends extending these programs to trucks and buses but also to developing countries, and supporting them by developing charging networks.